Uncertainty around Trump coming back to the surface - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted that there’s a general uncertainty surrounding how a Trump presidency will impact the US economy.

Key Quotes:

"In the medium run, we are likely to see changes to taxes, spending and trade policies. But the details are far from certain. In the near term, it’s unclear how consumers and businesses behavior will change to the news and the uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy.

Financial markets initially reacted negatively to the news but since have rallied. But understanding the initial impact on the economy will take longer—weeks or a few months—to figure out due to the lag in the monthly economic data.

The next round of consumer sentiment data such as the University of Michigan’s or Conference Board’s consumer indexes for November which are scheduled to be released over the next two weeks should capture, to some degree, how consumers feel a Trump presidency will impact the economy.

But the true impact on consumer and business spending won’t be known until hard data for the reference month of November and December are released."