Tokyo and Washington prepare for crucial trade talks – Rabobank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The world will be watching the Japan/US trade talks that are due to start in Washington on Thursday. Japan is the first major country to have talks with the Trump administration since the Rose Garden tariff address on April 2, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley notes.

Scope for pullbacks in USD/JPY in the weeks ahead

"While Trump last week delayed his reciprocal tariffs for most countries over and above the 10% base level for ninety days, PM Ishiba has told the Japanese parliament that he is 'not of the view that we should make big concessions for the sake of wrapping up negotiations quickly'. Press reports indicate that Japan will not use its large holdings of US treasuries as a negotiation tactic."

"That said, Japan does have a relatively strong hand going into the talks. It may also make it clear that it has no issue with the JPY strengthening moderately. We started the year with the view that the JPY had a good chance of being the best performing G10 currency in 2025. It is currently in fourth position after the SEK, CHF and the EUR."

"However, while there is scope for pullbacks in USD/JPY in the weeks ahead in favour of the USD, we remain optimistic about the ability of the JPY to regain pole position within the G10 universe this year. USD/JPY has sailed through our year-end target of 145 and we will be looking to revise this forecast in the coming weeks."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD rises to near 1.1650 amid dovish Fed expectations

EUR/USD edges higher after registering gains in the previous six successive sessions, trading around 1.1650 during the Asian hours on Monday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar struggles amid dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Friday’s slower-than-expected US jobs growth suggests the US central bank could hold interest rates steady later this month.

GBP/USD breaks below 1.3400, challenges the 200-day SMA

GBP/USD remains under heavy fire and retreats for the fourth consecutive day on Friday. Indeed, Cable suffers the strong performance of the Greenback, intensified post-mixed NFP, and trades at shouting distance from its critical 200-day SMA near 1.3380.

Gold hits a fresh record high as rising geopolitical risks boost safe-haven demand

Gold scales higher for the third straight day and climbs to a fresh all-time peak, beyond the $4,550 level, during the Asian session on Monday. Reports that US President Donald Trump is weighing a series of potential military options in Iran following deadly protests in the country fuel the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions amid the protracted Russia-Ukraine war. This, along with rising bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, offsets the recent US Dollar rally and is seen benefiting the safe-haven bullion.

Week ahead: US CPI might challenge the geopolitics-boosted Dollar

Geopolitics may try to steal the limelight from US data. A possible US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could dictate market movements. Dollar strength might be tested if investors refocus on Fed expectations. A crammed data calendar next week, US CPI comes on Tuesday; Fedspeak to intensify. Euro weakness persists, lingering risk of deterioration in US-EU relations.

The weekender: The market that refused to blink and dispersion is the signal

Last week was supposed to be a week of verdicts. Jobs. Tariffs. Rates. Instead, markets got ambiguity and treated it like oxygen. December payrolls undershot expectations but remained well within the market-perceived bullish-for-equities tolerance. 50,000 jobs added and unemployment down to 4.4% kept the data squarely in the Fed no-action zone.

XRP trades under pressure amid weak retail demand

XRP presses down on the 50-day EMA support as risk-averse sentiment spreads despite a positive start to 2026. XRP faces declining retail demand, as reflected in futures Open Interest, which has fallen to $4.15 billion.