|

S&P500 bounce off 2025 low retesting 38.2% Fib retrace of February-April slide

The S&P500 (ES) rebounded more than 1.5% Friday, closing the week back above the 38.2% Fib retrace of the February to April slide.  Last week’s Dead Cat Bounce by the ES as well the highly correlated Nasdaq100 as anticipated last Sunday appears likely to further strengthen early week to the 50% Fib retrace of the bear slide from February. This anticipated break above the Bear Flag consolidation resistance (in the 4hr chart) would likely be a fakeout where odds are decent for exhaustion once it reaches the 61.8% Fib. Despite ES’ strong April Hammer rebound off the 23.6% Fib retrace of a massive March 2009-December 2024 bull market, the bigger picture is of the powerful Bull Market extension from October 2022 having ended, with the monthly MACD trying to negatively cross. Bearishly for the rest of 2025, the 3 month MACD is trying to negatively cross. Volatility may return as early as Wednesday with the US retail sales, Powell comments and Thursday unemployment claims. Except for the still downsloping weekly MACD, the weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish or trying to resume rallying. I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter). 

Weekly/daily/4hr

Author

Darren Chu, CFA

Darren Chu, CFA

Tradable Patterns

Darren Chu, CFA, ex-Intercontinental Exchange | NYSE Liffe, TMX Group, CMC Markets, is the founder of Tradable Patterns – a publisher of futures/FX technical analysis on Bloomberg, LSEG (Refinitiv) and Factset.

More from Darren Chu, CFA
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD gathers recovery momentum, trades near 1.1750

Following the correction seen in the second half of the previous week, EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and trades in positive territory near 1.1750. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract buyers and supports the pair as investors await Tuesday's GDP data ahead of the Christmas holiday. 

GBP/USD knocks ten-week highs ahead of holiday slowdown

GBP/USD found room on the high side on Monday, kicking off a holiday-shortened trading week with a fresh spat of Greenback weakness, bolstering the Pound Sterling into its highest bids in ten weeks. Pound traders are largely brushing off the latest interest rate cut from the Bank of England as the UK’s central bank policy strategy leaves the water murky for rate-cut watchers.

Gold buying remains unabated; fresh all-time peak and counting

Gold builds on the previous day's blowout rally through the $4,400 mark and continues scaling new record highs through the Asian session on Tuesday. Bets for more interest rate cuts by the US Fed, renewed US Dollar selling bias, and rising geopolitical uncertainties turn out to be key factors driving flows towards the bullion. Traders now look to the delayed release of the revised US Q3 GDP print and US Durable Goods Orders for a fresh impetus.

Year ahead 2026: Where will Bitcoin be in a year’s time?

Bitcoin, which accounts for roughly 60% of total crypto market capitalization, entered 2025 with unstoppable momentum under a crypto‑friendly Trump administration. The rally was supported by major regulatory wins and accelerating institutional adoption.

Ten questions that matter going into 2026

2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.

XRP steadies above $1.90 support as fund inflows and retail demand rise

Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.