S&P500 bounce off 2025 low retesting 38.2% Fib retrace of February-April slide
The S&P500 (ES) rebounded more than 1.5% Friday, closing the week back above the 38.2% Fib retrace of the February to April slide. Last week’s Dead Cat Bounce by the ES as well the highly correlated Nasdaq100 as anticipated last Sunday appears likely to further strengthen early week to the 50% Fib retrace of the bear slide from February. This anticipated break above the Bear Flag consolidation resistance (in the 4hr chart) would likely be a fakeout where odds are decent for exhaustion once it reaches the 61.8% Fib. Despite ES’ strong April Hammer rebound off the 23.6% Fib retrace of a massive March 2009-December 2024 bull market, the bigger picture is of the powerful Bull Market extension from October 2022 having ended, with the monthly MACD trying to negatively cross. Bearishly for the rest of 2025, the 3 month MACD is trying to negatively cross. Volatility may return as early as Wednesday with the US retail sales, Powell comments and Thursday unemployment claims. Except for the still downsloping weekly MACD, the weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish or trying to resume rallying. I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Friday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
Weekly/daily/4hr
Author
Darren Chu, CFA
Tradable Patterns
Darren Chu, CFA, ex-Intercontinental Exchange | NYSE Liffe, TMX Group, CMC Markets, is the founder of Tradable Patterns – a publisher of futures/FX technical analysis on Bloomberg, LSEG (Refinitiv) and Factset.
