S&P 500 Index: Sustained move below 3938 to trigger a fall to 3868/58 – Credit Suisse

S&P 500 is starting to turn more decisively lower. Analysts at Credit Suisse now look for a closing break below 3938 to complete a short-term top.

Initial resistance seen at 3984 

“We look for a sustained move below 3938 to confirm that a top is in place to clear the way for further weakness to 3868/58 initially, which is the 38.2% retracement of the October/December rally. Whilst we would look for this to hold at first, below in due course should see the 63-day average at 3835 next, with the ‘measured top objective’ seen at 3775. 

“Big picture, we maintain our base case the October/December has been a bear market rally only.”

“Resistance is seen at 3984 initially, with 3999/4015 now ideally capping. Above can see a recovery back to 4042/52.”