Singapore: Retail Sales surprised to the upside in July – UOB

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

Senior Economist Alvin Liew and Associate Economist Jester Koh at UOB Group assess the release of Retail Sales in Singapore.

Key Takeaways

Singapore’s retail sales increased 1.1% y/y in Jul, lower than Bloomberg’s consensus of 2.1% y/y but a tad higher than Jun’s revised reading of 1.0% y/y. On a seasonally-adjusted sequential basis, retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in Jul, reversing the two preceding months of sequential contraction (Jun: -0.8% m/m, May: -0.1% m/m). Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales fell by 1.1% m/m (Jun: 0.1% m/m), translating to a milder y/y print of 0.4% (Jun: 2.3% y/y). In nominal terms, the value of retail sales rose to S$3.94bn (from S$3.84bn in Jun).

Outlook – We continue to expect retailers to enjoy some level of domestic and external support, complemented by major events such as various sports, popular concerts and BTMICE (Business Travel and Meetings, Incentive Travel, Conventions and Exhibitions) activities.

Downside risks to retail sales in 2H23 include a more cautionary external environment, easing in labour market conditions (slowing wage growth; uptick in unemployment and underemployment rates; weaker hiring sentiment across sectors) and a slower than expected return of inbound Chinese tourists. Given the recent softening in retail sales prints and elevated prices (especially on food and transport) which increasingly weigh on household spending, we downgrade our 2023 retail sales growth forecast to 3.5% from 5.0%.

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.