Silver trades cautiously ahead of US employment report amid mixed drivers
- Silver trades in a tight range as markets turn cautious ahead of the US employment report.
- A firmer US Dollar and rising Treasury yields cap the short-term upside.
- Persistent geopolitical risks and monetary policy expectations continue to support precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades modestly higher on Friday, with the white metal hovering around $77.70 at the time of writing, up 1.10% on the day. Silver consolidates its recent gains as investors remain cautious ahead of the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the day.
Market participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach ahead of this key data release, which could shape expectations for the future path of monetary policy at the Federal Reserve (Fed). A stronger-than-expected labor market report would reinforce the view that the central bank can afford to remain patient, while a weaker outcome would revive bets on earlier monetary easing. In this context, Silver remains sensitive to moves in US Treasury yields and fluctuations in the US Dollar (USD).
Renewed strength in the Greenback and higher US yields could weigh on Silver by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. However, the metal continues to find underlying support from persistent geopolitical risks and lingering fragility in global risk sentiment.
International tensions continue to fuel demand for safe-haven assets. Developments surrounding Venezuela, controversial comments from the US President on foreign policy, as well as renewed tensions in the Middle East and Asia, are keeping defensive demand for precious metals intact. These factors are helping to limit downside pressure on Silver despite a less favorable short-term rate environment.
On the data front, recent US economic indicators released ahead of the employment report have sent mixed signals. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims edged higher, while announced job cuts declined, pointing to a labor market that is slowing but not deteriorating sharply. Investors now look to the NFP report for clearer guidance on US economic momentum and its implications for monetary policy.
Overall, Silver remains supported by expectations of a potentially more accommodative monetary policy environment over the medium term and by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, even as near-term caution prevails ahead of the key US labor market data.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Ghiles Guezout
FXStreet
Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.
