|

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD struggled at $25.00, retreated to the $24.50 region amid falling US yields

  • XAG/USD finishes the week on the wrong foot, despite falling US bond yields.
  • XAG/USD plummeted in the day as risk-off market mood boosts the greenback.
  • Fed’s Waller and Clarida would like a faster bond taper.
  • XAG/USD Technical outlook: An inverted head and shoulders target the $28.20-30 range.

As Wall Street closes, silver (XAG/USD) finished the session in the red, down almost 1%, at $24.58 at the time of writing. Friday’s session witnessed a downbeat market sentiment in the equity markets. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial printed losses between  0.11% and 0.74%. The outlier was the Nasdaq 100, gaining 0.56%. Safe-haven currencies finished the day in the green in the FX market, while risk-sensitive currencies, like the AUD, the NZD, and the GBP, fell.

In the overnight session, silver remained subdued, trendless trading around the $24.75-93 region. However, some fed speakers spurred demand for the greenback throughout the American session, ultimately affecting the white metal, which plunged to the  $24.50 area.

Fed’s Waller and Clarida would like a faster bond taper

On Friday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the Federal Reserve may double the pace of its QE to $30 billion per month to end by April of 2022. Waller added that accelerating the rhythm would give the US central bank space for rate hikes as soon as Q2 of 2022. 

Later during the day, Fed’s Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that it “may very well be appropriate” to discuss accelerating the pace of the bond tapering, in line with St. Louis President James Bullard. Further noted that he sees upside risks to inflation and added that the economy is very strong position at that it looks as though Q4 is going to be very good. 

The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 1.55% in the bond market, down three and a half basis points.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) portrays that an inverted head-and-shoulders in the daily chart just formed. However, it would need a confirmation above the neckline, though Friday’s price action witnessed a daily close below the neckline. Despite the abovementioned, the non-yielding metal has an upward bias in the near term, with the 50 and 100-day moving averages (DMA’s) residing below the spot price.

Nevertheless, to accelerate the uptrend, silver bulls would need to reclaim the 200-DMA at $25.26. That outcome would open the door for further gains, though XAG/USD bulls would find some hurdles on the way north.

The first resistance would be the August 4 high at $26.00. A sustained breach of the latter would expose July 14 high $26.44, followed by the psychological $27.00.

On the flip side, failure the first support would be the 100-DMA at $24.06

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price24.59
Today Daily Change-0.23
Today Daily Change %-0.93
Today daily open24.82
 
Trends
Daily SMA2024.4
Daily SMA5023.52
Daily SMA10024.12
Daily SMA20025.33
 
Levels
Previous Daily High25.16
Previous Daily Low24.68
Previous Weekly High25.39
Previous Weekly Low24.03
Previous Monthly High24.83
Previous Monthly Low22
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%24.87
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%24.98
Daily Pivot Point S124.61
Daily Pivot Point S224.41
Daily Pivot Point S324.14
Daily Pivot Point R125.09
Daily Pivot Point R225.36
Daily Pivot Point R325.56

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD flirts with tops near 1.3470

GBP/USD manages to regain composure and challenge the area of daily highs around 1.3470 on Friday. Cable picks up pace despite marginal gains in the Greenback in a context of swelling geopolitical tensions and rising global oil prices.

EUR/USD trims losses, back above 1.1500

EUR/USD picks up some pace and bouces off earlier lows, reclaiming the 1.1500 threshold and beyond at the end of the week. The pair’s modest pullback follows a persistent risk-averse market mood and renewed buying interest for the US Dollar.

Gold: The $4,000 mark holds the downside for now

Gold faces renewed selling pressure, falling sharply toweard the $4,000 mark per troy ounce as the US Dollar regains momentum. Escalating US-Iran tensions are keeping inflation concerns and expectations of further Fed rate hikes alive, weighing further on the yellow metal.

Bitcoin eyes 50-day EMA breakout, Ethereum consolidates, XRP steadies

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple trade near key technical levels on Friday as the broader cryptocurrency market pauses following last week's recovery. BTC is approaching the 50-day Exponential Moving Average while ETH continues to consolidate between two major EMAs.

Warsh needs to restore his reputation
We were glad to see our deeply negative reaction to the Warsh press conference was not some personal peculiarity. Just about everybody in the financial press felt the same way. The consensus is building it’s not the Fed in the dog-house but only Warsh. Today the WSJ changed it tune and blasted Warsh—"the honeymoon is already over..”
9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?
The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.