Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects to near $62, increasing bearish bets on oil prices limit downside
- Silver price falls back to near $62 after a four-day winning streak.
- Hopes of further decline in oil prices are expected to limit the Silver price’s correction.
- Investors await the FOMC minutes for fresh cues regarding the US interest rate outlook.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1% to near $61.80 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal falls back after rising for four straight trading days. The precious metal is expected to revive soon, as market experts are betting on further decline in oil prices, a scenario that would ease global inflation expectations further.
In the past few months, the Silver price faced intense selling pressure as oil prices rallied due to energy supply disruptions in the wake of the Middle East war.
Analysts at Citi have said in a note that Brent Crude Oil could slide further to $60 by the year-end, with fundamentals rapidly reasserting themselves as Hormuz disruptions fade and shipping flows are normalizing.
In the Asian trade, the Brent Crude Oil trades 0.5% lower at around $71.80, close to the five-month low of $70.26 posted on Thursday.
Meanwhile, a slight decline in Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations, following the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Thursday, is also expected to support the Silver price.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering at least one interest rate hike by the end of September are 53.2%, down from 59.4% seen a week ago.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades lower at around $61.94 at press time. The white metal faces selling pressure after a mean-reversion move to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at roughly $63.53.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 after rebounding from the 20.00-40.00 zone suggests that the downside momentum has cooled down, but the downside bias is still intact.
On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the 20-day EMA at $63.53, and a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias and open the way for a more sustained recovery towards the June 22 high at $67.17, followed by $70.00. Looking down, the precious metal might be exposed to a fresh downside leg if it resumes its decline and drops below the June 24 low of $55.63.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
