United States: Slow growth but data understate jobs – Commerzbank

Commerzbank economist Bernd Weidensteiner analyzes recent U.S. employment trends, noting that Nonfarm Payroll growth has slowed sharply, with average monthly gains of just 32,000 over the past year. He argues that official data likely understate job creation and expects a positive benchmark revision of about 250,000 jobs for March 2026, though this will not materially alter the current softening labor market trend.

Positive revision prospects

"U.S. employment has grown only slowly in recent quarters. Unlike in previous years, however, the published figures appear to slightly underestimate job growth. The upcoming annual revision is likely to be positive."

"Employment in the U.S. is now growing at a relatively slow pace. In July, it was only 0.24% higher than a year earlier. Average monthly job growth over the past 12 months amounted to just 32,000."

"In December 2025, the QCEW figures show job growth of 299,000 compared to December 2024 (an increase of 0.2%). By contrast, the nonfarm payrolls from the employment report show only a minimal increase of 69,000 jobs. This means they underestimated actual employment by 230,000."

"Therefore, there is a good chance that a similar discrepancy will exist between the two data series in March, leading to an upward revision of payrolls for the first time in four years. We expect a revision of about +250,000 jobs. This corresponds to just under 0.16%."

"While the revision does change the baseline—even if it won’t be incorporated into the data until next year—it is unlikely to lead to a reassessment of labor market developments since March. After all, a smaller revision also indicates that statisticians have improved their models, which should also benefit the quality of current labor market data."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)