Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD climbs to $31.80-$31.85 zone; upside potential seems limited

Silver gains some positive traction for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through.
The technical setup warrants some caution for bulls and positioning for further appreciation.
Bears might wait for a convincing break below the 100-day EMA before placing fresh bets.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts buyers for the second straight day on Tuesday and moves further away from a nearly four-week low, around the $30.85-$30.80 region touched last Friday. The white metal climbs to the $31.80-$31.85 region during the first half of the European session, back closer to the overnight swing high, and seems poised to appreciate further.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD showed some resilience below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last Friday. The subsequent move up validates the near-term constructive outlook for the commodity. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are yet to confirm a positive bias and warrant some caution before positioning for any further appreciation.

Hence, any further move up is likely to confront some resistance near the $31.65 region ahead of the $32.00 mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the latter could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAG/USD to the $32.40-$32.45 hurdle. Bulls might then aim to surpass the $33.00 round-figure mark and test the February monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area.

On the flip side, the daily trough, around mid-$31.00s, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $31.20 area and the $31.00 mark. The latter coincides with the 100-day EMA pivotal support, which if broken decisively will be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders and make the XAG/USD vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $30.25 support zone.

The downward trajectory could extend further toward the $30.00 psychological mark en route to the $29.55-$29.50 horizontal support. The XAG/USD could eventually drop to the $29.00 round figure and December 2024 swing low, around the $28.80-$28.75 area.

XAG/USD daily chart

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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