|

Silver Price Analysis: Bears threaten the 100-day SMA amid USD strength

  • XAG/USD peaked at a daily high of $24.80 then settled near the $24.15 area.
  • US NFPs and PMI figures from August beat expectations. Still, wages decelerated, and Unemployment rose.
  • The USD strength drove the grey metal downwards.

At the end of the week, the XAG/USD closed with losses but managed to hold some weekly gains, closing near $24.15. On the data front, the US released soft Average Hourly Earnings, while Nonfarm Payrolls (NFPs) and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures came in higher than expected, helping the USD to get a boost. US yields sharply declined during the American sessions but then recovered, applying selling pressure on the Silver.

The US showed mixed economic data. On the bright side, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFPs) from August that came in at 187,000, higher than the expected 170,000 and the previous reading of 157,000. In addition, the Institute for Supply Management released the ISM Manufacturing PMI from the same month that came in at 47.6, while the expected figure was 47 and rose above the previous 46.4. On the other hand, wage inflation, measured by the Average Hourly Earnings, slowed to 4.3%, a bit lower than the consensus and the previous 4.4%. The Unemployment rate rose to 3.8% in the same month, higher than the market's consensus.

Following the NPF release, the US treasury bond yields sharply declined but then recovered some ground following the release of the ISM PMIs. The 2,5, and 10-year yields settled at 4.88%, 4.30% and 4.18%, respectively, after falling to their lowest level since August 10.

That being said, the CME FedWatch Tool suggests that investors expect the Fed won't hike in September, while the odds of a 25 basis points (bps) increase declined near 35% for November and December after rising near 46% last week. Regarding the decisions, it will all come down to the data, and investors will continue placing their bets depending on the signs the US economy gives

 
 XAG/USD Levels to watch 

 Upon evaluating the daily chart, a neutral to bearish outlook is seen, with the balance starting to lean in favour of the bears, although they still have hurdles to overcome.With a negative slope above its midline, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a potential weakening of buying pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) exhibits decreasing green bars. On the other hand, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating a favourable position for the bulls in the bigger picture.

 Support levels: $24.00, $23.90 (100-day SMA), $23.50

 Resistance levels: $24.30, $24.80, $25.00

 XAG/USD Daily Chart

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price24.18
Today Daily Change-0.23
Today Daily Change %-0.94
Today daily open24.41
 
Trends
Daily SMA2023.4
Daily SMA5023.65
Daily SMA10023.95
Daily SMA20023.42
 
Levels
Previous Daily High24.68
Previous Daily Low24.37
Previous Weekly High24.38
Previous Weekly Low22.67
Previous Monthly High25.02
Previous Monthly Low22.23
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%24.49
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%24.56
Daily Pivot Point S124.29
Daily Pivot Point S224.18
Daily Pivot Point S323.98
Daily Pivot Point R124.6
Daily Pivot Point R224.8
Daily Pivot Point R324.91

Author

Patricio Martín

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

More from Patricio Martín
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD moves sideways below 1.1800 on Christmas Eve

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and trades in a narrow channel below 1.1800 after posting gains for two consecutive days. Bond and stock markets in the US will open at the usual time and close early on Christmas Eve, allowing the trading action to remain subdued. 

GBP/USD keeps range around 1.3500 amid quiet markets

GBP/USD keeps its range trade intact at around 1.3500 on Wednesday. The Pound Sterling holds the upper hand over the US Dollar amid pre-Christmas light trading as traders move to the sidelines heading into the holiday season. 

Gold retreats from record highs, trades below $4,500

Gold retreats after setting a new record-high above $4,520 earlier in the day and trades in a tight range below $4,500 as trading volumes thin out ahead of the Christmas break. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated on the back of dovish Fed expectations, which continues to act as a tailwind for the bullion amid persistent geopolitical risks.

Bitcoin slips below $87,000 as ETF outflows intensify, whale participation declines

Bitcoin price continues to trade around $86,770 on Wednesday, after failing to break above the $90,000 resistance. US-listed spot ETFs record an outflow of $188.64 million on Tuesday, marking the fourth consecutive day of withdrawals.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Avalanche struggles near $12 as Grayscale files updated form for ETF

Avalanche trades close to $12 by press time on Wednesday, extending the nearly 2% drop from the previous day. Grayscale filed an updated form to convert its Avalanche-focused Trust into an ETF with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.