Philippine Peso: USD/PHP bearish bias but risk of snapback – OCBC

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

OCBC’s Christopher Wong describes USD/PHP as bearish but oversold after a sharp gap lower on softer yields and Oil. With inflation still above target and growth slowing, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) faces a difficult decision, where a firmer policy response could support PHP. However, a BSP disappointment or adverse external shift could trigger a corrective snapback in USD/PHP.

Oversold PHP faces BSP test

"USDPHP. Bearish but looking oversold. USDPHP gapped sharply lower yesterday in response to softer yields, oil prices."

"This week’s focus shifts to BSP, which may face a tougher balancing act. Inflation is still too high (last print at 6.8%, outside BSP’s 2-4% target range), but growth has also slowed."

"Consensus is leaning toward a 25bp hike, but a larger 50bp move should not be ruled out given the risk that BSP risks falling behind the curve."

"A scenario of firmer policy response, alongside softer oil prices can help PHP recover some lost ground. Elsewhere, watch FOMC for any hawkish surprises that may upset momentum."

"Momentum is bearish while RSI looks oversold. Risk of snapback should BSP disappoints or external environment turns. Support at 60.10 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). Resistance at 60.72 (23.6% fibo), 61 levels (50 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

USD/JPY stays below 160.50 as markets assess BoJ decision

USD/JPY fluctuates in a relatively narrow range above 160.00 on Tuesday as markets assess the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise the policy rate by 25 at the June meeting. Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on news coming out of the Middle East, while preparing for the critical Fed meeting.

AUD/USD trades in tight channel near 0.7050 despite hawkish RBA message

AUD/USD trades modestly lower on the day at around 0.7050 on Tuesday as markets adopt a cautious stance amid a lack of details surrounding the US-Iran peace agreement. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the door open for possible policy tightening after leaving the interest rate unchanged, as expected, at the June meeting but failed to boost the Australian Dollar.

Gold clings to moderate gains above $4,300 following Monday's rally

Gold maintains a mildly positive tone, holding gains after rallying about 6% over the last few days. The precious metal's recovery, however, has lost steam after crossing the $4,300 line as the initial enthusiasm about the US-Iran peace deal faded, with investors moving to the sidelines in anticipation of details of the agreement and monetary policy decisions by the Fed.

Solana's rebound gains momentum as ETF inflows return

Solana (SOL) steadies at $73 after posting three consecutive green candlesticks since the weekend. The recent recovery is supported by institutional demand, with spot Exchange Traded Funds recording net inflows of $2.81 million on Monday.

BoJ just hiked and US-Iran deal is on the table: Why Japanese Yen is still around 160.00

The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates from 0.75% to 1.00%, its highest level in more than three decades. The landmark move aims to stabilize a sharply weakening Japanese Yen, but by looking at the immediate market reaction, it doesn’t look like it’s going to work.

4.2% headline, 0.2% core: Why the Fed's next hike may be targeting the wrong problem

May's CPI put headline inflation at 4.2% on the year, up from 3.8% in April and the hottest reading since April 2023, while core prices rose just 0.2% on the month, undershooting the 0.3% consensus and halving April's pace.