Oil trapped between peace hopes and Fed cut bets – ING

The Oil market is stuck between the potential for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and what that would mean for Oil supply amid a broader risk-on trade as expectations grow for a December interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. A peace deal would likely remove much of the supply risk facing the market, potentially leading to the lifting of US sanctions on Russia. For today, though, market action is likely to be relatively muted due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ expected to hold output steady

"OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend. We believe the group will leave production unchanged. The fundamental outlook remains fairly similar to where it was at the group’s last meeting. Admittedly, though, there’s more uncertainty over Russian Oil supply. Earlier this month, the group paused any further supply increases over the first quarter of 2026."

"The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly inventory report was relatively bearish. According to the release, US crude Oil inventories increased by 2.77m barrels over the last week, a stark contrast to the 1.9m barrels decline the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the previous day. The increase was driven by a 560k b/d week-on-week decline in crude exports, while imports were up 486k b/d."

"Inventory builds were also reported in refined products, with gasoline and distillate fuel Oil stocks increasing by 2.51m barrels and 1.15m barrels, respectively. An increase in refinery run rates supported the build in product stocks, with run rates rising 2.3 percentage points WoW to 92.3%. An end to refinery maintenance, along with broader strength in refinery margins, supported higher refinery operating rates."