Oil: Iran conflict keeps prices elevated – Danske Bank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Danske Research Team highlights that Brent has surged to around USD 124–126 per barrel as Iran-related tensions and a US naval blockade drive supply fears. They note Polymarket-implied odds of only a modest chance of normalised Hormuz traffic by end-May. Higher energy prices are feeding inflation and dominating cross-asset sentiment, especially in equities and FX.

Geopolitics drive Brent risk premium

"Oil prices climbed to a new high since the start of the US-Iran war with the June Brent contract reaching USD 124 as Trump shows no willingness to open his naval blockade without a nuclear deal."

"Oil prices climbed further, with Brent crude reaching USD 126/bbl at the time of writing, toppling the recent USD 119.5/bbl high from 9 March."

"The increase follows reports that the US is considering military strikes to break the negotiation deadlock with Iran, intensifying concerns over prolonged supply disruptions."

"Market sentiment remains cautious, with Polymarket investors assigning less than a 30% probability of normalised traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May and a 45% likelihood of the US lifting its naval blockade."

"Overall, the Iran situation and the oil price are still conducting the orchestra, as we can also see this morning."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD holds firm near 0.7000 after Chinese inflation, trade data

AUD/USD stays firm near 0.7000 in Wednesday’s Asian session, picking up some bids after China's mixed inflation and upbeat trade data. CPI rose less than expected in September, while PPI inflation picked up. Meanwhile, the Chinese trade surplus unexpectedly widened in September. The pair remains underpinned by a broadly subdued US Dollar, despite the Middle East escalation, as focus remains on US CPI data.

USD/JPY consolidates near 158.50; looks to US CPI for fresh impetus

USD/JPY stays range-bound near 158.50 in the Asian session on Wednesday, with looming intervention risks supporting the Japanese Yen and capping upside amid a softer US Dollar. However, geopolitical uncertainties act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and the pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the release of the latest US inflation figures.

Gold drifts lower with US CPI, Fed speakers in focus

Gold extends losses on Wednesday, despite the lower US Treasury yields, with investors looking from the sidelines ahead of the release of September’s US Consumer Price Index report and speeches from Federal Reserve officials due later in the day. The XAU/USD pair has retreated below the $4,150 level after rejection at the $4,200 area on Monday, with technical indicators showing building bearish momentum.

XRP recovery faces headwinds despite Ripple and Meritz Securities' tokenization push in Korea

XRP trades above $1.36 as bulls gather momentum to face a critical supply range toward $1.40. Ripple and Meritz Securities partner to explore institutional custody and tokenization services for South Korea’s capital markets.

US CPI data expected to rise in September as markets reassess Fed rate outlook

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show a further increase in headline prices and a small uptick in annual core inflation. Any divergence from analysts’ estimates could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and impact the US Dollar’s valuation.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?