NZD/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady near 0.5870 as bullish bias remains
- NZD/USD struggles to lure buyers as the US-Iran uncertainty and Fed hike bets support the USD.
- The NZD bears seem hesitant amid the RBNZ’s hawkish tilt, limiting the downside for spot prices.
- Acceptance above the 0.5900 mark is needed to reaffirm a short-term bullish technical setup.
The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Tuesday, stalling the previous day's retracement slide from a two-month high – levels just above the 0.5900 mark. Spot prices currently trade around the 0.5870 region, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets amid the uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks.
Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place with the US, sparking an angry backlash from President Donald Trump and dampening hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old conflict. Furthermore, recovering crude oil prices revive inflation fears and fuel US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which further lends support to the US Dollar (USD and caps the upside for the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt helps limit losses for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD).
The recent bounce from the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and a breakout through the 0.5865 supply zone were seen as key triggers for NZD/USD bulls. This, in turn, underpins a constructive near-term bullish bias while spot prices consolidate above the said resistance-turned-support. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 60 and away from overbought territory, even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below its zero line.
Mixed momentum indicators, although supportive, hint at a mild loss of upside conviction rather than a full-fledged reversal. Hence, any further slide below 0.5865 is more likely to find decent support and remain limited by the 200-period SMA at 0.5757, where buyers are likely to defend the broader recovery structure. On the top side, a move beyond the recent swing high, near 0.5909, will set the stage for further gains. Nevertheless, the bullish bias would remain intact as long as the pair stays above the 200-period SMA floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
NZD/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.36% | 0.40% | 0.51% | 0.19% | 0.26% | 0.54% | 0.45% | |
| EUR | -0.36% | 0.03% | 0.09% | -0.16% | -0.00% | 0.18% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.40% | -0.03% | -0.30% | -0.21% | -0.05% | 0.13% | 0.04% | |
| JPY | -0.51% | -0.09% | 0.30% | -0.16% | -0.02% | 0.22% | 0.12% | |
| CAD | -0.19% | 0.16% | 0.21% | 0.16% | 0.16% | 0.39% | 0.25% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | 0.00% | 0.05% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.17% | 0.08% | |
| NZD | -0.54% | -0.18% | -0.13% | -0.22% | -0.39% | -0.17% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.45% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.25% | -0.08% | 0.09% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
