US Dollar Index (DXY) hits weekly highs above 102.00 ahead of October's NFP release

The DXY accelerates its recovery in risk-off markets and hits weekly highs just above 102.00.
The safe-haven US Dollar is outperforming its peers as global equity markets tank, dragged by tech shares.
Investors are bracing for a strong US NFP later in the day after a string of positive labour market reports throughout the week.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The US Dollar (USD) is showing the strongest performance among major currencies on Friday, amid a mix of risk-aversion, following a tech-led rout in equity markets, and investors’ hopes of a strong US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) appreciates 0.4% in the day so far, reaching weekly highs just above 102.00.

Markets are strongly averse to risk on Friday, following sharp declines in global equity markets, as investors sold chipmakers' shares, concerned that the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections will bring tougher regulations to the AI sector and push back plans to build new data centres.

Dollar support seen as Fed jobs view underpins defensive FX positioning

On the macroeconomic front, the focus is on October’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which is expected to show a 65K net increase in employment, following a 29K rise in September. Labour data released earlier this week, namely Wednesday's ADP Employment Change Report and Thursday's weekly Jobless Claims, have shown better-than-expected figures, boosting hopes of a positive surprise on Friday’s NFP report.

ING analyst Chris Turner argues that a “decent jobs number today will confirm the Fed's understanding that the US jobs market is 'solid' and could provide some support to short-dated rates and the Dollar.”

From a wider perspective, Turner observes that “US short-dated rates have fallen close to 50bp since late September and the Dollar's yield advantage over other major pairs has softened a little,” but he warns that it is still unclear “whether this tech sell-off leads to a broader re-assessment of the US growth and inflation trajectory.”

Economic Indicator

Nonfarm Payrolls

The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Why it matters to traders?

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.

AUD/USD hangs near three-week low, below 0.6950 as traders await US NFP report

AUD/USD hits a three-week low during the Asian session on Friday as the RBA’s dovish shift and a rout in equity markets weigh on the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, the recent slump in US bond yields to a two-month low keeps US Dollar bulls on the back foot and limits losses for the currency pair as traders look to the US NFP report for a fresh impetus.

USD/JPY bounces off three-week low; keeps the red near 157.65 as focus remains on US NFP

USD/JPY bounces off the weekly low set during the Asian session, as bears turn cautious ahead of the US NFP report due later this Friday. The upside seems limited as the recent slump in US bond yields and hopes of Iran war de-escalation undermine the US Dollar. Moreover, a hawkish BoJ and intervention risks support the Japanese Yen, capping the pair.

Gold pares intraday losses; down a little below $4,100 as focus remains on US NFP

Gold recovers most of its early intraday losses, trading with a mild negative bias near $4,070-$4,075. The US Dollar extends Thursday's recovery from its lowest level since late September, exerting some downward pressure on the commodity. Furthermore, a hawkish US Federal Reserve contributes to the precious metal pullback from a two-week high, which it touched the previous day. Bearish traders, however, seem hesitant ahead of the release of US monthly employment details, which should provide a fresh impetus to the precious metal.

Democrats win House and Senate in US midterms: Why isn’t all bad news for crypto

The biggest story this week was Tuesday’s US midterm elections, which saw Democrats win control of both the House and the Senate in a clear blue wave. This political shift in the US has triggered sharp price swings across the cryptocurrency market.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to pick up in October

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release October Nonfarm Payrolls data on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show an increase of 65K jobs, up from 29K in the previous month.

US Dollar breaks below 101.50 as Democrats sweep Congress

The US Dollar (USD) comes under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling around 0.5% to trade near 101.35 after sliding below the 101.50 level. The Greenback retreats to its lowest level in four weeks as investors reassess the political and economic outlook following the Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the United States (US) midterm elections.