NZD/USD Price Analysis: Sits near multi-week top, bulls await a move beyond 61.8% Fibo.

NZD/USD holds steady near a multi-week high on Tuesday amid a weaker USD.
The technical setup favours bullish traders and supports prospects for further gains.
A convincing break below the 0.6100 mark is needed to negate the positive outlook.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair edges higher for the third successive day on Tuesday and trades around the 0.6215-0.6220 barrier or a nearly three-week high during the Asian session.

Expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might be nearing the end of its rate hiking cycle keep the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive, which, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair. Market participants, however, seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the key central bank event risk - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policy meeting - and the release of the key US CPI report on Wednesday.

From a technical perspective, the recent breakout through a confluence resistance comprising the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a descending trend-line suggests that the path of least resistance for the NZD/USD pair is to the upside. Adding to this, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction and validate the constructive setup, supporting prospects for further near-term gains.

That said, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the June monthly peak, around the 0.6245-0.6250 region, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall, before placing fresh bullish bets. The NZD/USD pair might then accelerate the momentum towards testing the 0.6285 intermediate hurdle before aiming to reclaim the 0.6300 round-figure mark.

On the flip side, the 0.6190-0.6185 confluence resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the 0.6140-0.6135 region. Any subsequent decline could attract some buying and remain cushioned near the 0.6100 mark. This is closely followed by 23.6% Fibo. level, around the 0.6080 region, below which the NZD/USD pair could slide to the 0.6000 psychological mark.

Some follow-through selling below the YTD low, around the 0.5985 zone touched in June, should pave the way for a further near-term depreciating move.

NZD/USD daily chart

Key levels to watch

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6217
Today Daily Change	0.0006
Today Daily Change %	0.10
Today daily open	0.6211

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6167
Daily SMA50	0.617
Daily SMA100	0.6188
Daily SMA200	0.6177

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.622
Previous Daily Low	0.6166
Previous Weekly High	0.6221
Previous Weekly Low	0.6124
Previous Monthly High	0.625
Previous Monthly Low	0.599
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6199
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6187
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6178
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6145
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6124
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6232
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6253
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6286

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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