NZD/USD Price Analysis: Retreats from 0.6070 ahead of NZ Employment data

NZD/USD falls back from 0.6070 as the broader market sentiment is risk-averse.
The Fed is not expected to rush for aggressive rate cuts.
The NZ Q4 labor market conditions are expected to remain downbeat.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair faces selling pressure while attempting to extend recovery above the immediate resistance of 0.6070 in the European session. The Kiwi asset has fallen on the backfoot as the broader market mood is downbeat, and investors are rushing back to safe-haven assets.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) delivers a light corrective move after a significant rally to near 104.60. The appeal for the US Dollar has improved as chances of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are waning swiftly.

Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday that lower recession risks have given policymakers significant time to reconsider the outlook on interest rates.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar will be on tenterhooks ahead of the release of the Q4 Employment data, which will be published on Wednesday. Investors anticipate that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.2% from 3.69% in the third quarter of 2023. The Labor Cost Index, representing momentum in wage growth, rose at a steady pace of 0.8%. The decision-making between higher inflation and deteriorating labor market conditions is expected to remain complicated for Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) policymakers.

NZD/USD witnessed a steep fall after a channel breakdown on the daily timeframe. The broader outlook for the Kiwi asset is bearish as it is trading below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which hovers near 0.6112. The asset has dropped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement (plotted from October 26 low at 0.5772 to December 26 high near 0.6410) at 0.6090.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped into the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates more downside ahead.

More downside would appear if the asset drops below the immediate low of 0.6050, which would expose the asset to a June 8 low at 0.6026, followed by the psychological support of 0.6000.

On the flip side, further recovery above January 24 high at 0.6150 would drive the asset towards January 31 high at 0.6075 and January 16 high at 0.6208.

NZD/USD daily chart

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6059
Today Daily Change	0.0005
Today Daily Change %	0.08
Today daily open	0.6054

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6137
Daily SMA50	0.6189
Daily SMA100	0.6063
Daily SMA200	0.6086

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6082
Previous Daily Low	0.6037
Previous Weekly High	0.6175
Previous Weekly Low	0.6059
Previous Monthly High	0.6339
Previous Monthly Low	0.6061
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6054
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6065
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6033
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6013
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.5988
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6078
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6103
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6124

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold looks to regain $4,200 amid pre-US CPI repositioning

Gold is stretching higher toward $4,200 on Friday, extending recovery from two-month lows. US Dollar eases in tandem with Oil prices and Treasury yields, awaiting US sentiment data. The tide seems to be turning in favor of Gold, but the daily RSI is still bearish.

Ethereum drops below $2,500 as rising Treasury yields trigger selling pressure

Ethereum (ETH) fell below $2,500 on Thursday, down nearly 4% and extending losses for a third consecutive day. The decline follows rising Oil prices and US Treasury yields over the past few days. The 10Y Note Yield reached a 24-year high at 5.35%, and the 30Y Note Yield climbed above 5.70% earlier on the day, sparking major distributions in the crypto market.

The inflation illusion: How government formulas shape the data

Every month, the government releases a barrage of economic statistics. Employment, inflation, consumer spending, economic growth, and countless other measurements are presented as objective facts that policymakers, investors, and the public can use to understand the economy. But what happens when the methodology used to produce those numbers changes?

The UK 30-year gilt just hit a 1998 high. Is that good or bad for the British Pound?

The yield on the UK's 30-year government bond, or gilt, went through 6% on October 1 for the first time since early 1998, and on Monday the Pound was at its strongest against the Euro since June 2025. The gilt market's 28-year high is mostly someone else's. Since early May, the 30-year gilt yield has risen about 0.15 of a percentage point and the US 30-year about 0.7.