NZD/USD holds fragile footing as USD demand returns amid geopolitical noise

Fragile ceasefire headlines fade quickly, keeping risk sentiment unstable and supporting the USD.
RBNZ's cautious stance limits NZD upside as policymakers balance inflation risks and weak growth.
Fed’s steady tone and firm yields continue to underpin the Greenback.

Agustin Wazne FXStreet

The NZD/USD pair is trading with a cautious tone around the 0.5830 region on Thursday, as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) regains some traction following shifting geopolitical headlines.

Market sentiment initially improved after reports suggested a potential ceasefire framework between the United States, Iran, and Israel. However, optimism faded quickly as the agreement appears fragile, with key conditions still unresolved and ongoing military activity in the Middle East continuing to weigh on confidence.

From a macro perspective, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) remains in a delicate position. Inflation remains slightly above the 1–3% target band, but policymakers have signaled a willingness to “look through” energy-driven price pressures unless they spill over into broader inflation.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to project a cautious but firm stance. Recent communication, including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, reinforced a data-dependent approach, with policymakers acknowledging inflation risks tied to higher oil prices.

Short-term technical analysis:

On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5822, holding a constructive near-term bias as it consolidates above the 20-period simple moving average (SMA) near 0.5750 and the 100-period SMA around 0.5780. Price action is now probing a band of overhead levels after reclaiming the 0.58 handle, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 70 flirts with overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is strong but increasingly stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at 0.5839, followed closely by 0.5847, with further bullish targets at 0.5907, then 0.5930 and 0.5965 if buying pressure extends. On the downside, initial support is seen at 0.5816 ahead of 0.5809, while deeper pullbacks would look to the 100-period SMA around 0.5780 and then the 20-period SMA near 0.5750 to maintain the broader constructive structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Author

Agustin Wazne

FXStreet

Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold gains at start of Fed’s policy week

Gold finds bids below $4,000 in the Asian trade on Monday. The precious metal starts the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy week on positive note, but is broadly vulnerable, being closer to its three-month low of $3,975.

Bitcoin slides below $80,000, Ethereum and XRP bears in control

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) bears remain in control, extending losses on Monday after three straight weeks of declines. BTC slips below $80,000, while ETH and XRP follow BTC’s lead and trade lower at $2,315 and $1.30, respectively. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests weakening momentum indicators, raising the risk of a deeper correction.

CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning

The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.