NZD/USD extends its upside above 0.6200 on the softer USD, Fed rate cut bet

The NZD/USD pair gains momentum toward the 0.6200 round figure during the early Asian session on Monday. The speculation that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done with rate hikes drags the US Dollar (USD) lower and lifts the NZD/USD. At press time, the pair is trading near 0.6210, up 0.11% on the day.

Early Monday, New Zealand’s Terms of Trade Index for the third quarter (Q3) fell 0.6% QoQ versus 0.3% prior. Good Export prices dropped 1.5% QoQ from the previous reading of a 6.8% rise while Import prices for goods declined 0.8% QoQ from a 1.0 drop in the previous reading.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held the cash rate steady at 5.5% last week but noted inflation remained too high and that further policy tightening might be needed if price pressures did not ease. That being said, the hawkish tilt from the RBNZ boosts the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and acts as a tailwind for the NZD/USD pair.

On the other hand, this contrasts with the dovish tone from the Fed, with the market now pricing the US central bank to end the tightening cycle and will begin cutting the rate as early as next March. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that it was premature to rule out additional rate hikes or start discussing cuts.

Apart from this, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in weaker than expected and remained unchanged at 46.7 in November, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Friday.

Market players will monitor the US Factory Orders for October. Later this week, New Zealand’s ANZ Commodity Price and US ISM Services PMI will be due on Tuesday. The attention will shift to US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, which is expected to add 180K jobs in November.