Susan Kilsby, economist at ANZ, points out that for the New Zealand economy, May delivered an unadjusted monthly trade balance of $264m, down on the previous month and below expectations.
“Exports of dairy commodities returned 15.2% more in May this year than the corresponding month a year ago.”
“On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports increased 4.2% m/m, while imports lifted 1.4%.”
“China continues to account for much of the lift in exports. In the 12 months to May exports to China lifted 22.1%, with May returns up 29.1% y/y. Australia and Singapore are our only large trading partners for which our export returns have fallen in the past year.”
“Looking forward, we expect to see export volumes drop away seasonally as the volume of dairy and meat products processed falls through the winter months. The recent weakness in dairy prices will also start to flow into export returns in the coming months.”
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