Norges Bank: Rate path seen steady – Nordea

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Nordea’s Kjetil Olsen expects Norges Bank to keep its key policy rate at 4.5% next Thursday, in line with the September rate path. He notes mixed data: slightly higher core inflation and energy prices versus a stronger NOK and softer retail sales. Olsen argues communication will stay broadly unchanged and that rate cuts are unlikely before inflation clearly converges to the 2% target, which he does not foresee before 2028.

Policy rate and inflation outlook

"Norges Bank will keep its key rate unchanged at 4.5% next Thursday, in line with the rate path presented at the September meeting."

"In addition, oil and gas prices have risen, as have electricity futures."

"On the other hand, the stronger NOK points in the opposite direction."

"Overall, if Norges Bank were to publish a new rate path today, we believe it would be very close to the September path at the front end, perhaps marginally lower, but somewhat lower further out."

"We believe Norges Bank needs to see clear evidence that inflation is converging towards the 2% target before signalling rate cuts."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD edges higher as hot CPI inflation and hawkish RBA lift rate hike bets

The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.7035 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar edges higher against the US Dollar as hotter Australian CPI inflation data has bolstered expectations of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes.

USD/JPY meets support near 157.00

USD/JPY retreats for the third consecutive day on Friday, revisiting the 157.00 region before attempting some recovery as investors continue to assess the latest BoJ meeting, where the central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated.

Gold sinks to fresh yearly lows despite risk-off mood as Fed rate hike bets weigh

Gold slips to fresh year-to-date lows on Friday. The metal struggles despite a risk-off mood across markets, as expectations of further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes continue to dominate price action, leaving Gold on track to end the month in negative territory.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP bulls defend $1.20 as sell-side pressure triggers liquidations

Ripple (XRP) trades around $1.25 on Friday, rising from a short-term support level established at $1.20. This minor upward correction follows a sharp sell-off, triggered amid reports of a hack attack on the Binance exchange that impacted approximately $6.3 billion. The attack drove the broader crypto market on edge, as Binance suspended both deposits and withdrawals to contain the situation.

Week ahead – Nonfarm Payrolls and US midterm elections take center stage

The US dollar traded higher against most of its peers this week, beginning the week on a solid footing amid expectations of a hawkish FOMC decision on Wednesday. Although market participants were convinced that a rate hike was off the table, they were on the lookout for clues and hints on whether they were correct in nearly fully pricing in a 25bps rate hike in December.

A hot US economy is supposed to sink Gold. It didn't. Here's why

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure near $4,000, as stronger-than-expected United States (US) economic data reinforce expectations of another Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in December. Economic growth is accelerating, inflation remains elevated, and borrowing costs could rise further.