The next US official employment report is due on May 5. Analysts at TD Securities point out that data suggest a slowdown in payrolls to sub-200,000 levels for the first time since 2020.
Key quotes:
“High-frequency data suggest the pace of job creation is likely to take a step down in April, with payrolls set to advance at a sub-200k pace for the first time since 2020. Our interpretation of the daily Homebase series, which tracks small-business payrolls, suggests employment rose 150k.”
“This would be in sync with this week's Beige Book report which noted that employment growth moderated somewhat this period as several Districts reported a slower pace of growth than in recent Beige Book reports.”
“Jobless claims were little changed vs mid-March, but continuing claims have been rising. This story might change in coming months, though layoffs have concentrated on the information sector (tech), with no evidence of large spillovers into other sectors just yet.”
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