Mosaic's Q1 earnings beat, revenues fall short of estimates

The Mosaic Company reported a profit of $238.1 million or 75 cents per share for first-quarter 2025, up from $45.2 million or 14 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Barring one-time items, adjusted earnings per share were 49 cents, topping the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents.

Net sales declined around 2% year over year to $2,620.9 million in the quarter. The metric missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,665.9 million. Lower selling prices in the Potash unit caused the downside.

The Mosaic Company price, consensus and EPS surprise

Mosaic Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | The Mosaic Company Quote

MOS’s segment highlights

Net sales in the Potash segment were $570 million in the reported quarter, down around 11% year over year, hurt by lower selling prices. The figure beat our estimate of $453.7 million. Sales volumes totaled 2.1 million tons, down from 2.2 million tons a year ago. The figure missed our estimate of 2.2 million tons. The segment’s gross margin declined to $80 per ton from $98 per ton in the year-ago quarter.

The Phosphate division’s net sales were $1,099 million, down around 6% from the prior-year period. Lower volumes were offset by higher prices. The figure topped our estimate of $1,027.3 million. Sales volumes in the segment totaled 1.5 million tons, down from 1.6 million tons a year ago, lagging our estimate of 1.7 million tons. The gross margin in the quarter was $111 per ton, up from $97 per ton in the year-ago quarter.

Net sales in the Mosaic Fertilizantes segment were around $934 million in the quarter, up about 5% year over year, aided by higher volumes. The figure missed our estimate of $1,091.9 million. Sales volume in the quarter rose to 1.8 million tons from 1.7 million tons in the year-ago quarter. The gross margin in the quarter was $69 per ton, up from $44 per ton in the prior-year quarter.

Mosaic’s financials

At the end of the quarter, Mosaic had cash and cash equivalents of $259.2 million, down 5% from the prior quarter. Long-term debt was $3,329.9 million, flat sequentially.

MOS’ outlook

The company expects sales volumes for the Potash segment to be between 2.3 million tons and 2.5 million tons in the second quarter. 

For the Phosphate division, sales volumes are projected to be 1.7-1.9 million tons, reflecting strong demand globally. 

MOS also expects sales volumes for the second quarter to be around 30% higher than the first quarter for the Mosaic Fertilizantes unit. Distribution margin is forecast to be in the annual normalized $30-$40 per ton range.

The company also sees capital expenditures in the band of $1.2-$1.3 billion for 2025.

MOS’s price performance

Shares of Mosaic have gained 3% in the past year compared with the Zacks Fertilizers industry’s 7.4% rise.

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MOS’s Zacks rank and other key picks

MOS currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Better-ranked stocks in the Basic Materials space are Hawkins, Inc., Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. and Franco-Nevada Corporation . While HWKN carries a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), ASM and FNV carry a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

Hawkins is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results on May 14. The consensus estimate for Hawkins’ fourth-quarter earnings is pegged at 74 cents. HWKN beat the consensus estimate in one of the last four quarters while missing thrice, with the average earnings surprise being 6.1%. 

Avino Silver & Gold Mines is slated to release first-quarter results on May 13. The consensus estimate for ASM’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at 3 cents. ASM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 94.4%, on average.  

Franco-Nevada is slated to release first-quarter results on May 8. The consensus estimate for FNV’s first-quarter earnings is pegged at $1. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings has been going up over the past 60 days.

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