Microsoft ($MSFT) up 27% since April entry at the blue box area

As our members know, we’ve been long in Microsoft ($MSFT) since April. The stock has made a solid rally, gaining 27% since our entry last month.  In this technical article, we are going to present Elliott Wave trading setup of MSFT.  The stock completed its corrective decline precisely at the Equal Legs area, also known as the Blue Box.

In the following sections, we’ll break down the Elliott Wave structure in detail and explain the logic behind the setup and trade management.

MSFT Elliott Wave weekly hour chart 03.30.2025

The current analysis suggests that Microsoft stock is undergoing a correction in the form of an Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. We can count 5 waves from the peak so far. That implies the pullback is incomplete at the moment — we expect more short-term weakness, another leg down ((C)) black toward the Blue Box.

Our analysis calls an extension toward the extreme zone at the 355.33 area, where we are looking to re-enter as buyers. We recommend members avoid selling MSFT, as the main trend remains bullish. We anticipate at least a 3-wave bounce from this Blue Box area. Once the price touches the 50% fib level against the ((B)) black connector, we’ll make positions risk-free, set the stop-loss at breakeven, and book partial profits.

Quick reminder on how to trade our charts :

Red bearish stamp+ blue box = Selling Setup
Green bullish stamp+ blue box = Buying Setup
Charts with Black stamps are not tradable.

MSFT Elliott Wave weekly hour chart 05.25.2025

The stock extended lower into the Blue Box area and found buyers, just as expected. The correction ended at the 338 low, and since then, Microsoft stock has staged a strong rally toward the 450 area. As a result, all long positions entered at the Blue Box are now risk-free — we’ve moved our stop loss to breakeven and already secured partial profits. As long as price holds pivot at 338 low, further upside remains likely.