Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
HYCM
Recently the DAX has been under pressure seeing solid days of selling on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. US debt default risk, geo-political tensions, a gloomy German IFO print, and high UK inflation are likely to prompt higher rates from the BoE all weighed on sentiment.
However, seasonally a weak summer for the DAX is not a surprise. In fact, the DAX’s seasonals are pointing to further summer weakness. Over the last 15 years, the two weakest months for the DAX have been June and August. So, with June just around the corner, are there more down days to come for the DAX?
From June 1 to June 30 the DAX has fallen nearly 75% of the time and has an average fall of over 2% in the last 15 years. The maximum fall was a 10% drop last year. Will the seasonal pattern be repeated this year?
Major Trade Risks: The major near-term trade risk here is a possibility of a short bounce in sentiment if the US debt ceiling talks are successful over this weekend.
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