Indian Rupee gains vertically as oil prices sink
- The Indian Rupee gains further, capitalizing on a correction in oil prices and the US Dollar.
- US President Donald Trump pauses attacks on Iran to allow time for diplomacy.
- Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.
The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its recovery against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy week. The USD/INR pair falls further to near 95.85 as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has weighed heavily on oil prices and has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.
In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 trades 6.25% lower to near Rs. 8065.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to fulfill their energy needs, improves when oil prices fall sharply.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.25.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.35% | -0.19% | -0.20% | 0.02% | -0.38% | -0.27% | -0.44% | |
| EUR | 0.35% | 0.13% | 0.13% | 0.35% | -0.05% | -0.09% | -0.11% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.23% | -0.17% | -0.06% | -0.23% | |
| JPY | 0.20% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.18% | -0.19% | -0.23% | -0.24% | |
| CAD | -0.02% | -0.35% | -0.23% | -0.18% | -0.38% | -0.44% | -0.45% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.38% | -0.09% | -0.07% | |
| INR | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.44% | 0.09% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.23% | 0.24% | 0.45% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US holds strikes on Iran on exhaustion of target list
Two-week-long exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused over the weekend as Washington confirmed that further military aggression would be unnecessary, confirming that the target list has been exhausted.
According to Axios, Adm Bradley Cooper, the top US military commander in the region, had told Trump the US military campaign had reached the limits of its effectiveness, The Guardian reported. Cooper added that there was little point in continuing the bombing campaign without a return to major combat operations.
In response, Iran also paused attacking US bases in its neighboring nations, but confirmed that its position remains "attack for attack".
Meanwhile, US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, also told Fox News on Sunday that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports. This has renewed hopes for diplomatic efforts between both nations.
Investors await key Fed policy
This week, the major trigger for global markets will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. So far this year, the Fed has not made any monetary policy adjustments.
Investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the economic outlook. Warsh is unlikely to deliver any remarks regarding the monetary policy guidance, as he clarified in its last press conference that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR delivers mean-reversion move to near 20-day EMA
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.90 at press time. The pair extends its correction to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 95.98.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index slides to near 50.00, indicating that the momentum is not bullish anymore and a further correction could be on the horizon.
On the downside, the pair could fall towards 95.00 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA near 95.99. Looking up, the all-time high at around 97.10 will be the key resistance level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator
Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Read more.Next release: Wed Jul 29, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: 3.75%
Previous: 3.75%
Source: Federal Reserve
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
