Indian Rupee: RBI focus on FX stability – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Commerzbank analysts report that India will introduce new Producer Price Index (PPI) and revised WPI indices on 15 June, improving measurement of producer price pressures but with limited near-term policy impact. They expect the RBI to keep its policy rate at 5.25%, with emphasis on FX stability as USD/INR has weakened 6.1% year-to-date and recent RBI intervention has been reported.

New price indices and RBI stance

"India announced a revision of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) alongside the introduction of a Producer Price Index (PPI). Both datasets will be released on 15 June. The change reflects a gradual transition away from a commodity-heavy inflation index toward one that captures the prices of both goods and services faced by producers."

"The new PPI covers both goods and services. It will be disaggregated into monthly output PPI, input PPI, and quarterly services PPI. This should improve the measurement of upstream cost pressures and provide a more consistent deflator for real GDP calculations."

"On monetary policy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) began its three-day meeting yesterday. The central bank is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% as inflation remains below target despite growing upside risks."

"However, policy emphasis will likely be on FX stability, with a bias toward a more hawkish bias and continued reliance on macro-prudential measures to support inflows. The government is reportedly considering bond tax incentives to attract foreign participation."

"In FX, USD/INR rose 0.5% to 95.71 yesterday as oil prices gained on geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over US tariff policy. Reports indicated that RBI intervened earlier this week to support the INR. It is the second-weakest Asian currency. Year-to-date, the INR is down 6.1% vs the USD compared to the average for Asian currencies ex-Japan of -2.4%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold defends 200-day SMA at $4,425, but for how long?

Gold is attempting a tepid recovery toward $4,500 early Thursday, as renewed optimism in the Mideast geopolitical front calms market nerves. This cautious optimism across Asian markets weighs on Oil prices, and diminishes the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, helping Gold stage a decent comeback from the weekly low of $4,424.

Hyperliquid: ETF demand, capital rotation fuel HYPE rally as Bitcoin melts

Hyperliquid price sustains an upward trend near its all-time high of $75.76 on Thursday after posting 80% gains in May, while Bitcoin (BTC) retraces below $65,000, triggering a market-wide panic.

Kevin Warsh takes the Fed helm: What it means for the US Dollar

The Federal Reserve moves away from the highly predictable "forward guidance" model of the Jerome Powell era to a new “Kevin Warsh environment”, characterized by less communication, more policy surprises, and an increased focus on the Fed's complex balance sheet.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.