Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD to rise if US core inflation falls below 5% – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Gold price up slightly in wake of US labour market data. Attention will now be focused on the US consumer price data that are due to be published on Wednesday. Economists at Commerzbank analyze how XAU/USD could react to the US CPI report.

Focus now on inflation figures

The headline rate of inflation is likely to fall significantly to 3.1% on account of a base effect. The last time it was any lower was in March 2021. Though the core inflation rate, which is more relevant to monetary policy, is set to drop to 5.0%, this would still be more than two times above the target. This also underlines the need for further monetary policy tightening.

The core rate would presumably need to fall below 5% for the Gold price to gain in response to the data.

See – US CPI Banks Preview: Inflation to step meaningfully lower in June

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

USD/JPY consolidates near 160.00 as US NFP takes centre stage

The USD/JPY pair trades in a tight range around 160.00 during the European trading session. The pair wobbles as investors await the United States Nonfarm Payrolls data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Investors will closely monitor the employment data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.

Gold returns to the red, awaits US NFP

Gold price is looking to test the weekly lows, while in the red near $4,450 in the early European session on Friday. The precious metal remains vulnerable amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding the US-Iran peace deal and the US May employment report later on Friday.

Arthur Hayes' “Holy Trinity” is dead: Exits Zcash after Orchard Pool exploit

Arthur Hayes has entirely dumped his “Holy Trinity” holdings by offloading his Zcash holdings on Friday. The privacy coin is down 13% so far on Friday, extending Thursday’s 26% decline after an Orchard Shielded Pool audit revealed a critical vulnerability that allowed the undetectable minting of fake coins. Hayes continues to hold Worldcoin ahead of the upcoming SpaceX Initial Public Offering, on the chance of a “high-beta proxy” rally.

Nonfarm Payrolls set to show stable labor market in May as markets digest Fed hawkish shift

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Nonfarm Payrolls data for May on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 85K following the surprisingly strong 185K and 115K increases recorded in March and April, respectively.

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.