Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD eyes weekly lows near $1775 ahead of Jackson Hole showdown


  • Gold prints losses following the previous day’s decline on Thursday.
  • US Dollar Index bounces back to near 93.00  ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium.
  • Lower US Treasury yields capped the downside for the precious metal.

Update: Gold has resumed its bearish momentum in the European session, extending losses further below the $1800 mark while targeting the weekly lows of $1777. The buying resurgence around the US dollar remains unabated so far this Thursday, as a flight to safety underpins the greenback’s safe-haven appeal. Meanwhile, markets resort to repositioning their dollar trades ahead of the all-important Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, starting later on Thursday. Also, in focus remains the US Q2 GDP and jobless claims data for fresh trading cues.

From a technical perspective, gold price is challenging the 21-Daily Moving Average (DMA) at $1785 once again. A daily closing below the latter could confirm a bearish reversal following a rejection at the 200-DMA at $1810 earlier this week. The next stop for the bears is seen at the one-week lows, below which the August 16 low of $1771 could come into play. Alternatively, recapturing 50-DMA at $1791 on a sustained basis is critical to attempting a meaningful recovery towards the $1800 level.

Read: Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech: Caution will win out

 

After testing the high of $1,805  in the overnight session, gold prices edge lower on Thursday. Prices dip toward $1780 in the US session but bounced back above $1,800. Again, the precious metal started the journey to the south after breaking the $1,800 level.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading at $1,788, down 0.11% for the day.

Investors ditched the yellow metal on reducing the risk of the Delta coronavirus concern, which could derail the pace of global growth economic recovery. The sentiment shifted after US FDA fully approved Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies, remains strong near 93.00.

Market sentiment turns cautious ahead of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday, which could provide a hint over economic stimulus. But the narrative post the US central bank’s last policy meeting suggests Powell might avoid making any firm commitments about the timing of tapering, but might drop a signal it will be announced before the end of the year.

The lower US Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the bullion metal. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s support from coronavirus downside risk, global growth worries and geopolitical tensions are countered by a weaker investor interest.

Global stock markets were mixed up on Thursday, which lends support near the lower levels. 

Gold prices are expected to trade sideways ahead of the US GDP index data and Initial Jobless Claims.


Technical levels

The gold prices continue to struggle near the $1,800 mark lately. Broadly speaking, prices are under selling pressure below the $1,830 level on the daily chart. XAU/USD slips below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday, which could prompt more downside movement in prices.

The formation of a ‘Spinning Top’ on August 24, followed by a  red candle portrays a perfect picture of the beginning of fresh downward price action in gold.

XAU/USD daily chart

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains neutral in the oversold zone.  A downtick in the MACD indicator would confirm the downside momentum. 

A sustained break below the $1,780 would make the journey toward the south for the prices toward the yearly low levels achieved on August 9 at $1,687.78

XAU/USD additional levels

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price 1787.08
Today Daily Change -3.83
Today Daily Change % -0.21
Today daily open 1790.91
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 1785.59
Daily SMA50 1790.89
Daily SMA100 1810.57
Daily SMA200 1810.82
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 1803.18
Previous Daily Low 1782.59
Previous Weekly High 1795.56
Previous Weekly Low 1770.89
Previous Monthly High 1834.17
Previous Monthly Low 1765.74
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1790.46
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1795.31
Daily Pivot Point S1 1781.27
Daily Pivot Point S2 1771.64
Daily Pivot Point S3 1760.68
Daily Pivot Point R1 1801.86
Daily Pivot Point R2 1812.82
Daily Pivot Point R3 1822.45

 

 

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