Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD nosedives to the lowest level since August 13

Gold continued losing ground through the early North American session and dived to the lowest level since August 13, further below the $1760 region post-US macro releases. The US dollar bulls cheered a surprisingly strong August Retail Sales report, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the dollar-denominated commodity. According to the official data, the headline Retail Sales smashed consensus estimates and increased 0.7% MoM in August. Adding to this, sales excluding autos recorded a much stronger growth and came in at 1.8%, further underscoring consumer confidence.

Separately, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly jumped to 30.7 in September from 19.4 in the previous month. This, to a larger extent, helped offset a slight disappointment from Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, which rose from a pandemic-era low of 312K to 332K during the week ended September 10. Nevertheless, the data pointed to the continuation of economic recovery and reaffirmed expectations about an imminent Fed taper announcement later this year. This was evident from a sharp spike in the US Treasury bond yields, which further drove flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Apart from this, the underlying bullish sentiment in the financial markets was seen as another factor that exerted additional pressure on the safe-haven gold. The sharp downfall took along some short-term trading stops placed near the previous monthly swing lows, around the $1,780 horizontal zone. This further aggravated the intraday bearish pressure and might have already set the stage for further losses. Hence, a subsequent fall towards testing the next relevant support, near the $1,750 region, remains a distinct possibility. That said, RSI (14) on hourly charts is already flashing extremely oversold conditions and warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders.

Technical levels to watch


Today last price 1757.71
Today Daily Change -36.28
Today Daily Change % -2.02
Today daily open 1793.99
Daily SMA20 1801.35
Daily SMA50 1798.23
Daily SMA100 1816.27
Daily SMA200 1808.7
Previous Daily High 1806.93
Previous Daily Low 1790.77
Previous Weekly High 1830.32
Previous Weekly Low 1782.47
Previous Monthly High 1831.81
Previous Monthly Low 1687.78
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1796.94
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1800.76
Daily Pivot Point S1 1787.53
Daily Pivot Point S2 1781.07
Daily Pivot Point S3 1771.37
Daily Pivot Point R1 1803.69
Daily Pivot Point R2 1813.39
Daily Pivot Point R3 1819.85



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