Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD extends rally above $2,170 amid weaker US Dollar, geopolitical tension risks

Gold Price (XAU/USD) extends its upside above the mid-$2,150 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year and the dovish remarks from Fed officials weigh on the US Dollar (USD) and provide some support to the US Dollar-denominated Gold. At the press time, gold price is trading at $2,171, adding 0.04% on the day. 

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the value of the USD against a weighted basket of currencies used by US trade partners, retreats from multi-week peaks of 104.50 and hovers around 104.20. The US Treasury bond yields edge slightly higher, with the 10-year yield standing at 4.25%.

The uptick in yellow metal is driven by higher bets on the rate cut expectation in 2024. However, traders will closely monitor the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for February on Friday for confirmation on the timing of rate cuts. The headline PCE is forecast to show an increase of 0.4% MoM, while the Core figure is expected to rise by 0.3% MoM. Traders have priced in a 70% probability of a June rate cut, versus 65% before the Fed's March meeting last week.

Russia carried out one of its most massive missile and drone attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure overnight into Friday since the start of its full-scale invasion more than two years ago, per CNN. That being said, the rising geopolitical tensions in both Eastern Europe and the Middle East could boost the safe-haven flows and benefit the gold price. 

Looking ahead, market players will focus on US Consumer Confidence by the Conference Board, Durable Goods Orders, and the FHFA’s House Price Index on Tuesday. Later this week, the US Gross Domestic Product Annualized for the fourth quarter (Q4) will be due on Thursday, and the US PCE report will be released on Friday.