Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD declines towards $2,000 as USD Index rebounds, US Retail Sales eyed

Gold price is expected to return back to $2,000.00 as the USD Index is holding its support.
S&P500 futures have recovered their entire losses and have turned positive, portraying solid appeal for US equities.
Tuesday’s Retail sales data is seen expanding by 0.7% vs. a contraction of 0.6%.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) has retreated from $2,019.00 after a less-confident recovery move in the Asian session. The precious metal is expected to return to the psychological support of $2,000.00 as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded firmly.

It seems that the marginal correction in the USD Index has been bought by investors and the asset is aiming to recapture a five-week high at 102.75.

S&P500 futures have recovered their entire losses and have turned positive, portraying solid appeal for US equities. Investors are pouring funds into equities in hopes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its aggressive policy-tightening spree to avoid further damage to economic prosperity.

Investors will get more clarity on Fed’s action after the release of the monthly US Retail Sales data (April). Tuesday’s Retail sales data is seen expanding by 0.7% vs. a contraction of 0.6%. A recovery in retail demand would escalate fears of further interest rate hikes from the Fed.

The USD Index is holding strength amid uncertainty over the outcome of US debt ceiling negotiations. US President Joe Biden has announced further negotiations with Republican leaders for raising the US debt ceiling limit to avoid default on obligated payments.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is auctioning in a Rising Channel chart pattern on a two-hour scale. The upper portion of the aforementioned chart pattern is plotted from March 20 high at $2,009.88 while the lower portion is placed from March 22 low at $1,934.34. The downward-sloping trendline plotted from all-time highs at May 03 high at $2,079.78 is acting as a barricade for the Gold bulls.

Also, the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,019.38 has restricted the upside of the Gold bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00, indicating a lackluster move ahead.

Gold two-hour chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	2014.14
Today Daily Change	3.30
Today Daily Change %	0.16
Today daily open	2010.84

Trends
Daily SMA20	2007.66
Daily SMA50	1972.43
Daily SMA100	1919.95
Daily SMA200	1820.95

Levels
Previous Daily High	2022.59
Previous Daily Low	2000.95
Previous Weekly High	2048.27
Previous Weekly Low	2000.95
Previous Monthly High	2048.75
Previous Monthly Low	1949.83
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	2009.22
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	2014.32
Daily Pivot Point S1	2000.33
Daily Pivot Point S2	1989.82
Daily Pivot Point S3	1978.69
Daily Pivot Point R1	2021.97
Daily Pivot Point R2	2033.1
Daily Pivot Point R3	2043.61

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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