Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD crawls above $1,910 as US NFP comes under spotlight

Gold price has moved higher at a snail’s pace to near $1,915.00 ahead of US NFP data.
S&P500 futures are consistently extending losses as investors are anxious ahead of the labor market data.
Gold price is in an inventory adjustment stage in which inventory is exchanged among institutional investors and retail participants.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Gold price (XAU/USD) is demonstrating a dull performance after a wild spike-triggered post the release of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment report. The precious metal has walked briskly to near $1,915.00 and is expected to remain sideways ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data.

S&P500 futures are consistently extending losses as investors are anxious ahead of the labor market data and upcoming corporate earnings season. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a subdued performance. The upside for the USD index is restricted near 103.20 for now but bulls can make a comeback if NFP data turns out resilient.

Following a subdued lead from the USD Index, US Treasury yields are also sideways. The yields offered on 10-year US Treasury bonds are hovering around 4.04%.

Meanwhile, all eyes are set on the US NFP data. Analysts at Citi expect after a surprisingly strong 339K increase in nonfarm payrolls in May, we expect a slowing in employment growth in June, although a still-solid 170K jobs were added during the month. This could also be a temporarily softer month of payroll growth with upside risks again to payrolls from July through September. After the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.7% in May, we expect a decline to 3.6% in June with downside risks.

Gold technical analysis

Gold price is auctioning in an inventory adjustment stage in which inventory is exchanged among institutional investors and retail participants on a four-hour scale. It would be early calling the adjustment process as an ‘accumulation’ or a ‘distribution’ until a decisive move.

The downward-sloping trendline from May 03 high at $2,079.76 and the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,926.65 will continue to act as a major barricade for the Gold bulls.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the 40.00-60.00 range, awaiting a potential trigger.

Gold four-hour chart

XAU/USD

Overview
Today last price	1915.25
Today Daily Change	4.42
Today Daily Change %	0.23
Today daily open	1910.83

Trends
Daily SMA20	1931.02
Daily SMA50	1963.29
Daily SMA100	1947.11
Daily SMA200	1865.01

Levels
Previous Daily High	1927.69
Previous Daily Low	1902.77
Previous Weekly High	1933.39
Previous Weekly Low	1893.01
Previous Monthly High	1983.5
Previous Monthly Low	1893.01
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	1912.29
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	1918.17
Daily Pivot Point S1	1899.84
Daily Pivot Point S2	1888.84
Daily Pivot Point S3	1874.92
Daily Pivot Point R1	1924.76
Daily Pivot Point R2	1938.68
Daily Pivot Point R3	1949.68

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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