Gold Price Forecast: Russia import ban unlikely to impact XAUUSD – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

G7 members are set to ban imports of Russian gold to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow. Nonetheless, the yellow metal is expected to shrug off these headlines, economists at TD Securities report.

Fed pivot less associated with recession odds than in prior episodes

“G-7 ban on new Russian gold imports isn't expected to impact gold trading considering the LBMA's ban has already cut off new Russian output from major markets within the G-7. In turn, price action is reversing to reflect the minor impact on gold. However, gold prices are also being pulled higher as rising recession risks drive inflows into the yellow metal.”

“Gold bugs sniffing out a potential stagflationary outcome associated with lower growth but lingering inflation should also consider that central banks, facing a credibility crisis, could also continue to raise rates for longer than they otherwise would. In this scenario, pricing for a Fed pivot would be less associated with recession odds than in prior episodes.”

“In the near-term, continued whipsaws from CTA trend followers reflect the range-bound price action in the yellow metal as macro pressures build.”

See – Gold Price Forecast: XAUUSD to shrug off a G7 ban on imports from Russia – Commerzbank

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD softens to near 0.7000 on hawkish Fed signals, RBA rate decision looms

The AUD/USD pair loses momentum to near 0.7010 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar strengthens against the Australian Dollar on rising US Treasury yields and growing bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be in the spotlight later on Tuesday.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week

Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.

After the Trump Xi summit, markets are trading three clocks

The summit delivered time, not a deal. Trade, oil and chips now each run to a date, and the macro backdrop matters more than the pageantry. Markets wanted a deal and got a calendar date instead. Xi Jinping left Washington on Friday after tea at the White House and a tour of the National Archives.

Fed vs BoJ: Both hiked. The market only believes one of them – and the chart shows which

The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.