Gold Price Forecast: 200-HMA pokes XAU/USD sellers, central banks, US Retail Sales eyed

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers from the intraday low as it picks up bids to $1,795 heading into Thursday’s European session. The metal’s latest rebound could be linked to the technical correction, as well as the market’s cautious mood ahead of the multiple central bank announcements.

The metal dropped in the last two days as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) showed readiness to keep the interest rate high while announcing the 50 basis points (bps) rate hike, as expected. Also likely to have weighed the XAU/USD price could be the downbeat Industrial Production and Retail Sales data from China, one of the key customers of Gold.

It should be noted, however, that the recent anxiety ahead of the monetary policy decisions from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BOE) seemed to have triggered the market’s consolidation. Additionally important is the US Retail Sales for November, expected -0.1% MoM versus 1.3% prior.

Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields probe a two-day downtrend near 3.50% while the two-year US bond yields also extend recovery from the monthly low while printing the first daily positive in three near 4.25%. Also portraying the lackluster markets is the sluggish S&P 500 Futures and mixed performance of the Asia-Pacific shares.

It’s worth mentioning that the US Dollar Index (DXY) prints the first daily gains in three while bouncing off the six-month low, which in turn challenges the Gold buyers.

To sum up, the Gold price remains pressured ahead of the key central bank announcements despite the latest recovery moves.

Technical analysis

Gold price pares intraday losses while bouncing off the 200-Hourly Moving Average (HMA), currently around $1,790. The recovery moves also take clues from the oversold RSI conditions to tease the buyers.

However, bearish MACD signals and multiple hurdles towards the north challenge the XAU/USD bulls. Among them, a two-week-old horizontal resistance area near $1,805 gains the attention of intraday buyers.

Following that, a downward-sloping resistance line from Tuesday, near $1,810, could act as an additional upside filter to challenge the Gold buyers.

On the flip side, an ascending trend line from November 30 adds strength to the $1,790 support, by joining the 200-HMA.

In a case where the Gold price remains bearish past $1,790, the resulting downturn could aim for the weekly low near $1,777 and then to the monthly trough surrounding $1,765.

Overall, the Gold price remains bullish unless breaking $1,790 support confluence.

Gold price: Hourly chart

Trend: Recovery expected