Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD to stabilise between the $1653-$1707 zone – Commerzbank

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Gold (XAU/USD) has sold off to the 55-month moving average at $1707, between here and the $1653 uptrend, the yellow metal should stabilise, in the view of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank.

See – Gold Price Analysis: Rising real yields raise the prospect of a serious XAU/USD fall – Credit Suisse

Key quotes

“Gold has sold off to the 55-month ma at $1707 and currently we cannot rule out further slippage towards the $1653 2019-2021 uptrend. If seen, we would expect this to hold the downside.”

“Rallies will need to regain not only $1760/$1765.61, which is the May high and previous 50% retracement, but also the short-term downtrend at $1794 in order to alleviate downside pressure and signal recovery to the 200-day ma at $1861.”

“Above the 200-day ma at $1861 lies $1906, the 21st December high, and the top of the channel at $1918. This guards the November and September highs at $1965.84/$1973.8 and the 78.6% retracement at 2006.”

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market.

AUD/USD seems vulnerable near 0.6800, 10-month low amid bullish USD

AUD/USD languishes near a 10-month low during the Asian session on Friday, awaiting a break below 0.6800 before the next leg up amid a bullish US Dollar. Firming Fed rate-hike expectations, along with fading hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, help the USD hold gains at its highest level since April 2025. Moreover, the RBA’s dovish tilt undermines the Aussie and backs the case for further losses.

USD/JPY bulls turn cautious near 160.00 amid intervention risks

USD/JPY enters a bullish consolidation phase around its highest level since early September as bulls turn cautious amid intervention risk near 160.00. Meanwhile, the downside seems cushioned as the wide US-Japan interest rate gap keeps the Yen carry trade active. Furthermore, the possibility of a jumbo Fed rate hike and Middle East uncertainties hold the US Dollar near a 19-month top, supporting the currency pair.

Gold remains on the back foot below $3,900

Gold now alternates gains with losses below the $3,900 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal struggles to regain traction amid the firmer US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and expectations of further tightening by the Fed at its December meeting.

Bitcoin just posted five straight losing weeks, and the storm may not be over yet

Bitcoin is struggling to find support, slipping below $70,000 as multiple headwinds threaten to push the Crypto King lower. The much-anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize, with persistent selling pressure and widespread liquidations instead reinforcing the “Rektober” narrative.

Week ahead – Fed Minutes, inflation data and Nvidia earnings to guide investors

Fed minutes may add to hawkish tone as bets of 50-bps hike grow. Nvidia to report earnings as bar to impress high after spy scandal. Trade and geopolitics to be focal point of Trump-Xi summit.

Gold hit its lowest level of 2026 near $3,850

Gold (XAU/USD) attempts to stabilize around $3,890 on Friday after falling to $3,852 on Thursday, its lowest level since October 2025. The precious metal has lost more than 4% this week, as investors increasingly anticipate further monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest decline reflects a sharp change in market expectations.