Gold holds above $4,100 as weak USD counters Fed hike bets amid US-Iran escalation

Gold (XAU/USD) holds above the $4,100 mark during the Asian session on Thursday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from an over two-week high. Crude oil prices climb to a fresh high since June 11 amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations. This, in turn, lifts US Treasury bond yields to a multi-month high and is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding bullion.

The US and Iran traded strikes for a 12th night in a row, while Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis opened a new front in the war and declared a blockade on a key Red Sea shipping route that facilitates about 7% of the world’s oil supply. This comes on top of a significant fall in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and exacerbates supply disruption concerns, assisting crude oil to prolong its month-to-date uptrend. Investors remain worried that rising energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressure and force central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over a 90% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by the end of this year. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield holding firm near a two-month high. However, some follow-through US Dollar (USD) weakness lends some support to the Gold price and helps limit the downside. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that a one-week-old uptrend has run out of steam.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the rates move was accompanied by a notable shift in policy expectations, with investors now "priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with 34bps of hikes now priced in by the December meeting, up +2.3bps on the day." They note that this repricing has helped reinforce the recent rise in US real yields and the broader selloff across the Treasury curve.

Traders now look forward to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US for some impetus during the early North American session. Furthermore, the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting could infuse some volatility in financial markets. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around Gold.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold needs to surpass $4,155-$4,165 confluence to back the case for additional gains

The XAU/USD pair stalled a one-week-old uptrend near the $4,155-$4,165 confluence – comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EM) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid constructive momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive, hinting that buyers retain some control but are constrained by overhead supply.

This, in turn, suggests that the precious metal would first need to clear the aforementioned clustered resistance to back the case for any further appreciation. A sustained break above this would open the way towards 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,164.97 and the denser barrier near the 38.2% retracement at $4,303.59. On the downside, the primary structural floor is the Fibo. anchor at $3,940.90, where a deeper pullback could find demand and attempt to rebuild a more stable base for Gold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)