GBP/USD jumps past 1.3640 as US Dollar hits 10-week low ahead of Fed
- GBP/USD climbs as the US Dollar weakens despite stronger US Retail Sales and Industrial Production.
- Markets price 25-bps Fed cut, with minority eyeing 50-bps; FOMC projections and dot plot in focus.
- UK payrolls fall for the seventh month, but BoE is expected to hold rates steady at upcoming meeting.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances over 0.30% as the Greenback drops to a ten-week low, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The two-day meeting by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins on Tuesday, at which the Fed is expected to reduce interest rates. GBP/USD trades at 1.3646, up from 1.3592 daily low.
Sterling rallies to 11-week high as traders shrug off strong US Retail Sales, focus shifts to Fed cut
Sterling is trading at eleven-week highs versus the US Dollar, which failed to appreciate as Retail Sales data unexpectedly rose above estimates in August, reported the US Commerce Department on Tuesday. Retail Sales rose by 0.6% MoM in August, the same growth as the previous month and exceeding forecasts of 0.2%. Sales for the Control Group, used to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, expanded by 0.7% MoM, up from July’s print of 0.5%.
Although the data was solid, this would not prevent the Fed from easing policy as the labor market continues to deteriorate. Meanwhile, US Industrial Production rose by 0.1% MoM in August, exceeding July’s -0.1% MoM contraction.
Across the pond, UK jobs data showed that payrolls fell for a seventh straight month, showing that the labor market is cooling, though it might not deter the Bank of England (BoE) from keeping rates unchanged at Thursday’s monetary policy meeting.
Traders' focus shifts to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Market participants had fully priced in a quarter of a percentage point cut, though a tiny minority eyes a 50-bps rate cut. In addition to the decision, Fed officials will update their economic projections and lay the path for interest rates moving forward for the remainder of the year.
(This story was corrected on September 16 at 15:53 to say that the US July Retail Sales print was 0.6%, not 0.5%.)
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.64% | -0.32% | -0.43% | -0.14% | -0.02% | 0.04% | -0.77% | |
| EUR | 0.64% | 0.32% | 0.12% | 0.49% | 0.67% | 0.65% | -0.13% | |
| GBP | 0.32% | -0.32% | -0.18% | 0.18% | 0.36% | 0.35% | -0.46% | |
| JPY | 0.43% | -0.12% | 0.18% | 0.35% | 0.47% | 0.28% | -0.30% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | -0.49% | -0.18% | -0.35% | 0.11% | 0.14% | -0.63% | |
| AUD | 0.02% | -0.67% | -0.36% | -0.47% | -0.11% | 0.07% | -0.80% | |
| NZD | -0.04% | -0.65% | -0.35% | -0.28% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.75% | |
| CHF | 0.77% | 0.13% | 0.46% | 0.30% | 0.63% | 0.80% | 0.75% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Christian Borjon began his career as a retail trader in 2010, mainly focused on technical analysis and strategies around it. He started as a swing trader, as he used to work in another industry unrelated to the financial markets.
