|

GBP/USD: Extremely pessimistic tone of the BoE stints upside potential – NBF

The British pound was little changed on the announcement of a larger-than-usual rate hike by the Bank of England (BOE) as economic projections were significantly downgraded. Economists at the National Bank of Canada expect the GBP to struggle in the near-term.

BoE warns of bleak outlook

“The BoE now expects inflation to reach 13% by year-end and remain at elevated levels for the entirety of 2023 only to fall back to 2% in 2024. The Bank’s baseline scenario is for the economy to slide into a 15-month recession, during which time GDP should contract by more than 2%. Moreover, the unemployment rate is projected to rise in the middle of 2023 and could exceed 6% by the middle of 2025.”  

“We see limited upside potential for the pound in the short-term and will require some of the storm clouds to dissipate in order to make some gains later in our forecast horizon.” 

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1800 ahead of Fed Minutes

EUR/USD struggles to find direction and continues to move sideways below 1.1800 for the second consecutive day on Tuesday as markets remain in holiday mood. Later in the American session, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of the December policy meeting.

GBP/USD retreats to 1.3500 area following earlier climb

GBP/USD loses its traction and trades flat on the day near 1.3500 after rising to the 1.3530 area early Tuesday. Trading conditions remain thin ahead of the New Year holiday, limiting the pair's volatility. The Fed will publish December meeting minutes in the late American session.

Gold rebounds toward $4,400 following sharp correction

Gold gathers recovery momentum and advances toward $4,400 on Tuesday after losing more than 4% on Monday. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Tron steadies as Justin Sun invests $18 million in Tron Inc.

Tron (TRX) trades above $0.2800 at press time on Monday, hovering below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2859.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).