GBP/USD edges lower to 1.3120 as soft UK CPI boosts BoE easing outlook

GBP/USD dips from 1.3154 to 1.3120 as markets brace for the November 26 Autumn Budget risks.
UK CPI falls to 3.6% and core CPI to 3.4%, prompting renewed confidence that the BoE will cut rates in December.
Traders await Fed minutes and Thursday’s NFP, with September jobs expected at 50K and key US data resuming next week.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

GBP/USD edges modestly lower on Wednesday as inflation in the United Kingdom (UK) ticked lower in October, increasing the chance of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in December. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.3120 after reaching a peak of 1.3155.

Sterling eases after CPI cools further, boosting expectations for an 85%-probability rate cut ahead of next week’s Autumn Budget

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped from 3.8% to 3.6% YoY in October, as expected. Core CPI slipped from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, its lowest since March. The Pound Sterling (GBP) dipped as investors grew confident that the BoE may reduce borrowing costs at the December meeting.

The Pound could take a hit next week with the release of the Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Autumn Budget, on November 26.

Money markets had priced in an 85% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate cut, according to LSE data.

In the US, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 18 rose by 232K, triggering no reaction in financial markets. Besides traders waiting for the release of the Fed’s last meeting minutes, they are laser-focused on Thursday's Nonfarm Payrolls figures for September, which are expected to come at 50K, up from August’s 22K print.

The US Census Bureau announced that it would publish the September Retail Sales and Durable Goods Orders next week.

Ahead, Fed officials Governor Stephen Miran and regional Fed Presidents John Williams and Thomas Barkin will cross the wires.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Technically speaking, GBP/USD reached its lowest level in five days, at 1.3092, an indication that the downtrend continues. Momentum is bearish as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

If GBP/USD cracks below 1.3100, the next support would be the last cycle low of 1.3010, hit in early November. Conversely, if buyers clear the 20-day SMA at 1.3173, the next key resistance in play would be 1.3200.

Economic Indicator

FOMC Minutes

FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

Why it matters to traders?

Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

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