GBP/JPY pulls back below 199.50 despite bright UK consumption figures

The Pound retreated from session highs at 199.70 after the release of upbeat UK Retail Sales.
Retail Consumption grew at a 0.6% pace in the UK in August, beating expectations of a 0.2% increase.
GBP/JPY is showing a faltering bullish mommentum ahead of the 200.00 resistance area.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The British Pound has pulled back from intra-day highs around 199.70 against the Japanese Yen, returning to levels right below 199.50despite the stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures released earlier on the day.

Retail Consumption rose at a 0.6% pace in the UK in August, according to data released by the National Statistics, beating expectations of a 0.2% growth, while July’s reading was revised down to 0.3% from the previously estimated 0.9% reading. Excluding fuel, sales of all other products rose 0.5%, also above the market consensus of a 0.4% increase.

Technical analysis: Pound bulls hesitate ahead of the 200.00 resistance area

The broader picture shows the pair trading in a choppy and volatile manner within a 200-pip range below the 200.00 round level. The immediate bias remains positive, but RSI and MACD indicators in 4-hour charts show a weakening upside momentum as the pair approaches the mentioned level.

Immediate resistance is at Thursday’s high, around 199.80. Further up, the 200.30 area capped upside attempts on August 13 and 18, as well as on September 2. If that level is broken, the next bullish target is the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-August reversal, at 200.95.

To the downside, the pair has been trading above a short-term ascending trendline, which now lies around 199.05. Below here, the September 3 and 2 lows at 198.50 and 198.35, respectively, might provide some support ahead of the range floor, at 197.90 (August 20 and 29 lows).

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)

The Retail Sales ex-fuel data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers excluding automotive fuel. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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