GBP: Eyeing a break higher – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The US jobs market has continued to cool, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

EUR/GBP to break below 0.840 ahead of EU-UK trade talks

"There hasn’t been any sign of material deterioration after the April employer tax hike, and wage growth remains too high to make the Bank of England shift to a faster gear with monetary easing. In short, the UK labour market is slowing, not collapsing, and that is translating into a steady fall in wage growth."

"The Bank of England will want to see this trend continuing for a few more months before it becomes more confident on the wage story. Until then, next week’s services inflation number will be much more consequential, given that April’s data is when the big annual price hikes kick in. We think this could come in a little below the Bank’s forecasts, which would help cement an August rate cut."

"EUR/GBP has now approached 0.840, and we reiterate our call for a break lower ahead of EU-UK trade talks on Monday."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK Retail Sales data

GBP/USD is defending its renewed uptick above 1.3300 in the European session on Friday, helped by stronger-than-expected UK Retail Sales data for June. The pair snaps a five-day losing streak but the upside potential could be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East.

EUR/USD holds steady below 1.1400 amid Middle East tensions

EUR/USD is keeping its range below 1.1400 in European trading on Friday. Despite a brief rebound, the pair is trading with caution amid escalating conflicts in the Middle East and following the ECB's no rate change decision.

Gold sticks to intraday losses below $4,050 amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day, and weakens further below the $4,050 level during the Asian session. Escalating US-Iran tensions support elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and bolstering expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates. This helps the US Dollar preserve its strong weekly gains to a nearly one-month high, touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor undermining the non-yielding bullion.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin tests 50-day EMA support – Pi Network and Sky lead losses

The broader cryptocurrency market faces headwinds with rising tensions between the US and Iran, pushing Bitcoin down to its 50-day Exponential Moving Average support around $65,135 on Friday. Under pressure, Pi Network and Sky emerge as the worst-performing crypto assets over the last 24 hours.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.