French elections: Can Le Pen still win? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura explains that Le Pen can still win the French elections as its mathematically possible, but she needs to gain support in order to do so.

Key Quotes

“With less than a month before the first round of the presidential election, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen are neck-and-neck in the polls. However, Mr Macron is leading 60 to 40 in the second round. Ms Le Pen still faces an uphill struggle to win the election: 1) she needs to make sure that her core supporters, mainly less-educated, blue collar and from rural areas, go out and vote; 2) she needs to narrow the gap separating her from Mr Macron in the polls.”

“Mathematically, it remains feasible for Marine Le Pen to win. However, to achieve that, she needs to convince all the voters who, in the second round, have said they will abstain, or vote blank or who are still undecided to vote for her. This could be very difficult since abstentions and blank votes are a way for voters to protest against the political system, a phenomenon that has likely increased this year.”

“Our base case remains that Emmanuel Macron will win but the high numbers of uncommitted voters mean that a victory, while low, cannot yet be fully ruled out.”