Forex Today: Markets shrug off escalating tensions in Middle East
Here is what you need to know on Monday, June 1:
Major currency pairs struggle to pull away from the previous week's closing levels as investors largley brush off news pointing to a fresh escalation of tensions in the Middle East. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for May.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | -0.13% | 0.14% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.32% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | -0.16% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.04% | 0.29% | 0.17% | |
| GBP | 0.13% | 0.16% | 0.26% | 0.19% | 0.13% | 0.43% | 0.32% | |
| JPY | -0.14% | -0.07% | -0.26% | -0.06% | -0.08% | 0.21% | 0.08% | |
| CAD | -0.05% | -0.01% | -0.19% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.26% | 0.16% | |
| AUD | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.13% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.22% | 0.15% | |
| NZD | -0.32% | -0.29% | -0.43% | -0.21% | -0.26% | -0.22% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.08% | -0.16% | -0.15% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Friday, United States (US) President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that they will lift the blockade and allow ships caught in the Strait of Hormuz to start the process of "heading home." Trump further noted that he will be having a meeting to make a final determination on a possible deal with Iran. In response, Iran's Fars News agency reported that Iran has rejected Trump's claims.
Late Sunday, the BBC reported that Trump is seeking changes related to the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of enriched uranium in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). Meanwhile, the US military said over the weekend that it attacked Iranian radar and drone sites in the city of Goruk and the island of Qehm. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday it had targeted a US air base in response to the latest attack.
The US Dollar (USD) Index holds steady at around 99.00 in the European morning, while US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day.
Gold corrects lower and declines toward $4,500 after posting gains for two consecutive trading days.
EUR/USD registered small gains on Friday and closed the week marginally higher. The pair struggles to find direction early Monday and fluctuates at around 1.1650.
GBP/USD moves sideways above 1.3450 after ending the previous week virtually unchanged.
USD/JPY edges slightly higher to start the new week and trades at around 159.50.
NZD/USD registered gains for three consecutive days and reached its highest level since late February near 0.6000 on Friday. The pair corrects lower on Monday and trades at around 0.5970.
AUD/USD moves sideways in a narrow band below 0.7200 in the European session on Monday.
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
