Forex Today: CAD spikes in sync with Oil, a quiet docket ahead

Dhwani Mehta FXStreet

Asian week opening was a calmer one, despite solid NZ retail sales print and mixed Chinese data dump, as most majors traded in tight ranges amid a broad based USD consolidation after Friday’s downbeat US data-led sell-off. However, during mid-Asian trades oil prices and the Canadian dollar witnessed a sharp upward rally, following reports of Russia and Saudi Arabia favoring an OPEC output cut deal extension until March 2018. Meanwhile, Kiwi also held onto strong gains backed by above expectation NZ retail sales data.

Later today, amid a quiet economic calendar, focus will remain on the USD dynamics and Oil price-action, as investors gear up for an action-packed week ahead, with the UK CPI and S industrial production on tap.

Main topics in Asia

New Zealand Retail Sales (QoQ) came in at 1.5%, above expectations (0.9%) in 1Q

China data dump: Retail sales upbeat, industrial production disappoints

China’s retail sales YoY, came in in +10.7% vs 10.6% exp and 10.9% last, with industrial output YoY at 6.5% and 7.1% exp and 7.6% last.

N. Korea’s large scale heavy nuclear warhead landed in the sea near Russia on Sunday

Reuters out with detailed information on Sunday’s another ballistic missile test conducted by North Korea.

Russia, Saudi Arabia in favour of extending output cut deal to March 2018

As per the Bloomberg report, Russia and Saudi Arabia are in favour of extending the output cut deal to March 2018.

USD/CAD dumped to 1.3670 as Oil jumps +1.5% in Asia

The Canadian dollar rallied hard after latest headlines hit the wires on the OPEC output cut deal extension, knocking-off USD/CAD to daily lows of 1.3669.

Key Focus ahead

GBP/USD Forecast: any further up-move might now be capped at 1.2950 level

The pair built on Friday’s recovery move and has now moved back above the 1.2900 handle as focus shifts to this week’s important macroeconomic releases from the UK, including inflation figures and monthly employment report.

The week ahead: eyes on US IP (Tuesday) and other key global economic events

The week ahead in the US is holding a number of second-tier events, while greater risks come elsewhere from Euroland CPI, UK CPI, retail sales and labour force data, the RBA's minutes and Aussie unemployment data.

Disappointing data clouds dollar's near-term outlook - BBH

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that softer than expected April US retail sales and consumer prices saw the dollar pare its gains ahead of the weekend.

GMT	Event	Actual	Consensus	Previous
Monday, May 15
02:00	CNY Industrial Production (YoY)	6.5%	7.1%	7.6%
02:00	CNY Retail Sales (YoY)	10.7%	10.6%	10.9%
04:00	IDR Exports			23.55%
04:00	IDR Imports			18.19%
04:00	IDR Trade Balance			$1.23B
04:30	EUR Retail Sales (YoY)	4.6%		1.5% Revised from 1.3%
06:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.8%		0.8%
06:00	EUR Current Account	€-0.1B		€-0.1B
06:00	JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY)	34.7%		22.6%
06:00	NOK Trade Balance	22.2B		22.7B
07:00	TRY 3mth quarterly jobless average			13%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (YoY)			1%
07:00	EUR Headline Inflation (MoM)			-0.1%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (YoY)			1.7%
07:00	EUR Core Inflation (MoM)			-0.1%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (MoM)			0.1%
07:15	CHF Producer and Import Prices (YoY)			1.3%
07:30	SEK Capacity Utilization			1%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM)		0.8%	0.8%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY)		2%	2%
08:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.8%
08:00	CZK Current Account (MoM)			28.22B
n/a	EUR German Buba Monthly Report
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			-1.1%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			2%
n/a	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)			0.6%
12:00	PLN Net Inflation			0.6%
12:00	PLN Current Account			€-860M
12:30	USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index			5.2
14:00	USD NAHB Housing Market Index			68
15:30	USD 3-Month Bill Auction			0.9%
15:30	USD 6-Month Bill Auction			1.015%
20:00	USD Net Long-Term TIC Flows			$53.4B
20:00	USD Total Net TIC Flows			$19.3B
Tuesday, May 16
01:30	AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)			1.9%
01:30	AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)			-3%
01:30	AUD RBA Meeting's Minutes
02:00	CNY FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD) (YoY)			1%
03:00	KRW Money Supply Growth			7.2%
04:30	JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM)			0.2%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY)		1.4%	1.4%
06:45	EUR Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM)		0.1%	0.7%
06:45	EUR Inflation ex-tobacco (MoM)			0.6%
07:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			3%
07:00	HUF Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.6%
07:00	CZK Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			1.9%
07:00	RON Gross Domestic Product			4.8%
07:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)			2.5%
07:30	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)			0.6%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (YoY)		0.8%	1.0%
08:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.2%	0.2%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)			0.3%
08:30	GBP Retail Price Index (YoY)		3.4%	3.1%
08:30	GBP DCLG House Price Index (YoY)			5.8%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.4%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a			0.3%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a			3.6%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a			17.9%
08:30	GBP PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a			2.5%
08:30	GBP Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a			0.4%
08:30	GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.2%	1.8%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY)		2.6%	2.3%
08:30	GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.4%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment		20.6	19.5
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Current Situation		81.0	80.1
09:00	EUR Trade Balance n.s.a.			€17.8B
09:00	EUR Trade Balance s.a.			€19.2B
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)		0.5%	0.5%
09:00	EUR Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)		1.7%	1.7%
09:00	EUR ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment			26.3
n/a	EUR 3-Month Letras Auction			-0.487%
n/a	EUR 9-Month Letras Auction			-0.334%
12:30	USD Building Permits Change			3.6%
12:30	USD Housing Starts Change			-6.8%
12:30	USD Housing Starts (MoM)		1.265M	1.215M
12:30	USD Building Permits (MoM)		1.27M	1.26M
12:55	USD Redbook index (MoM)			-1.6%
12:55	USD Redbook index (YoY)			1.3%
13:15	USD Industrial Production (MoM)		0.3%	0.5%
13:15	USD Capacity Utilization		76.3%	76.1%
n/a	NZD GDT Price Index			3.6%
15:30	USD 4-Week Bill Auction			0.71%
19:00	COP Retail Sales (YoY)			-7.2%
19:30	COP Industrial ouput (YoY)			-3.2%
20:30	USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-5.78M
22:45	NZD Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ)			1%
22:45	NZD Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ)			1.5%
23:50	JPY Machinery Orders (YoY)		0.6%	5.6%
23:50	JPY Machinery Orders (MoM)		2.1%	1.5%
Wednesday, May 17
n/a	PLN NBP Base rate			1.5%
24h	NOK Constitution Day
00:30	AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM)			0.1%
00:30	AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Index			99
00:30	AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence			-0.7%
01:30	AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ)		0.5%	0.5%
01:30	AUD Wage Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (YoY)			3.3%
04:30	JPY Industrial Production (MoM)			-2.1%
04:30	JPY Capacity Utilization			3.2%
07:00	EUR HICP (MoM)			0.9%
07:00	EUR HICP (YoY)			2.2%
07:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (MoM)			-0.1%
07:00	EUR EU Norm Inflation (YoY)			1%
07:00	EUR Non-monetary policy's ECB meeting
08:00	EUR Global Trade Balance			€1.884B
08:00	EUR Trade Balance EU			€0.168B
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Rate			2.2%
08:30	GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)		4.7%	4.7%
08:30	GBP Claimant Count Change			25.5K
08:30	GBP Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)		2.4%	2.3%
08:30	GBP Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)		2.2%	2.2%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY)		1.9%	1.9%
09:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)			1.2%
09:00	EUR Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)			7.1%
09:00	EUR Construction Output s.a (MoM)			6.9%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			1.4%
10:00	EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.4%	0.8%
11:00	USD MBA Mortgage Applications			2.4%
11:00	ZAR Retail Sales (YoY)			-1.7%
12:30	CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)			-0.2%
13:00	RUB Gross Domestic Product Quarterly (YoY)
14:30	USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks change			-5.247M
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)		0.4%	0.3%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY)			-0.1%
23:50	JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized		1.7%	1.2%
23:50	JPY Foreign bond investment			¥426.1B
23:50	JPY Foreign investment in Japan stocks			¥241.5B
Thursday, May 18
01:00	AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation			4.1%
01:30	CNY House Price Index			11.3%
01:30	AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction			1,248M
01:30	AUD Part-time employment			-13.6K
01:30	AUD Employment Change s.a.		5.0K	60.9K
01:30	AUD Fulltime employment			74.5K
01:30	AUD Unemployment Rate s.a.		5.9%	5.9%
01:30	AUD Participation Rate		64.7%	64.8%
04:00	USD Fed's Bullard speech
05:30	EUR Unemployment Rate s.a (3M)			5.1%
07:00	TRY Consumer Confidence			71.3
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (YoY)			3%
07:00	CZK Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.1%
08:00	PLN Unemployment (MoM)			8.1%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)		1.0%	-1.5%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)			2.6%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (MoM)		1.0%	-1.8%
08:30	GBP Retail Sales (YoY)		1.9%	1.7%
n/a	EUR Current Account Balance			€-0.014B
11:30	CLP Gross Domestic Product (YoY)			0.5%
12:00	PLN Corporate Sector Wages			5.2%
12:30	USD Initial Jobless Claims			236K
12:30	USD Continuing Jobless Claims			1.918M
12:30	USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey		19.4	22.0
12:30	CAD Foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities			$38.84B
12:30	CAD Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities			$6.33B
12:30	CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM)			-0.2%
13:00	EUR Consumer Confidence Index			0
14:30	USD EIA Natural Gas Storage change			45B
17:15	USD FOMC Member Mester speech
21:00	CLP BCCH Interest Rate
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth (YoY)			4.2%
21:00	KRW Producer Price Index Growth			-0.1%
21:45	NZD Visitor Arrivals (YoY)			-0.2%
Friday, May 19
24h	TRY Commemoration of Ataturk, Youth and Sports Day
04:30	EUR Consumer Confidence Adj			26
05:30	EUR ILO Unemployment			10%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (MoM)		0.2%	0.0%
06:00	EUR Producer Price Index (YoY)			3.1%
06:00	RUB Producer Price Index (MoM)			-0.3%
06:00	RUB Producer Price Index (YoY)			11.3%
06:00	RUB Industrial Output			0.8%
07:00	HUF Gross Wages (YoY)			10.7%
08:00	DKK Consumer Confidence			7.4
08:00	EUR Current Account s.a			€37.9B
08:00	EUR Current Account n.s.a			€27.9B
08:30	HKD Unemployment rate			3.2%
09:00	EUR Unemployment Rate			8%
10:00	GBP CBI Industrial Trends Survey - Orders (MoM)			4
11:30	INR FX Reserves, USD			$375.72B
12:00	PLN Retail Sales (YoY)			9.7%
12:00	PLN Industrial Output (YoY)			11.1%
12:00	PLN Producer Price Index (YoY)			4.7%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales (MoM)			-0.6%
12:30	CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)			-0.1%
13:15	USD Fed's Bullard speech
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM)			0.3%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY)			1.6%
13:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)			1.3%
13:30	CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)			0.3%
13:30	CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM)			0.2%
14:00	EUR Consumer Confidence		-3.0	-3.6
17:00	USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count			712
19:30	USD CFTC Gold NC net positions
19:30	USD CFTC USD NC net positions
19:30	USD CFTC Oil NC net positions
19:30	GBP CFTC GBP NC net positions
19:30	JPY CFTC JPY NC net positions
19:30	EUR CFTC EUR NC net positions
19:30	AUD CFTC AUD NC net positions

Author

Dhwani Mehta

FXStreet

Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.

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