Forex Today: Aussie nears 0.7700 post-RBA, UK manufacturing PMI in focus


Forex today was a quiet affair in Asia this RBA Tuesday, with risk-aversion back in vogue amid the re-emergence of the US-China trade war fears after China retaliated to the US tariffs. Despite persisting risk-off flows, most higher-yielding assets were well bid while the safe-haven Yen and gold also failed to benefit. In fact, the risk currencies, the Antipodeans, advanced amid better fundamentals and higher oil prices, with the Aussie having tested the 0.77 handle following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) status-quo. Meanwhile, the US dollar stalled its upside and traded neutral across its main competitors, awaiting fresh trading impetus from the session ahead.

Main topics in Asia

Trump wants a NAFTA rewrite in two weeks - CNBC

CNBC is reporting on reports from the White House that President Trump wants an outline of a NAFTA revamp ready to go in time for the Summit of the Americas in Peru on April 13th, as originally reported by Bloomberg.

China imposed tariffs on US products to "balance losses": State Media

China's retaliation to US tariffs is only aimed at "balancing the losses" caused by US duties according to a commentary on the front page of the official People's Daily.

Japan’s Seko: Chinese retaliatory tariffs do not benefit anyone

Japanese Trade Minister Seko was out on the wires earlier today, via Reuters, responding to China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US imports.

China's ambassador to US: Will fight back any new US tariffs at equal strength, value and scale

China’s state media reported comments from the Chinese ambassador to the US, as saying that China is prepared to fight back any new US tariffs at equal strength, value and scale.

BOJ Tankan inflation expectations still well below 2% target

Japanese companies expect consumer prices to rise an average 0.8 percent a year from now, unchanged from the previous forecast and well below Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2 percent inflation target, the central bank's Tankan survey for March released today showed. 

White House's Navarro: ‘smart money’ is going to buy on the dips as economy ‘is as strong as an ox’

In the interview on CNBC, Navarro said, "I’m looking at this market and the economy and I’m thinking the smart money is certainly going to buy on the dips here because the economy is as strong as an ox."

RBA holds rates a record low of 1.50 percent, keeps steady view

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) at its monetary policy meeting today, left the official cash rate (OCR) unadjusted at a record low of 1.50%, as widely anticipated.

RBA: Inflation likely to remain low for some time

Following are the key headlines from the RBA monetary policy statement (via Reuters) …

Key Focus ahead

Looking towards the EU calendar this Tuesday, we have a relatively busy one, with the German retail sales data to be published ahead of the European open. Meanwhile, a flurry of final manufacturing PMI releases will be dropping in from across the Euro area economies. Also, in focus, remains the UK manufacturing PMI data, which is expected to come in at 54.8 in March versus 55.2 last.

In the NA session, New Zealand’s fortnightly dairy auction results from Fonterra will be closely eyed among a couple of minority reports from the US. Besides, the speech by the FOMC member Brainard will hog the limelight in the American afternoon, as she is scheduled to speak about financial stability at New York University's Stern School of Business.

EUR/USD fighting back from 1.23 ahead of EU PMIs for Tuesday

Europe sees an array of macro data early in Tuesday's action, kicking off with German Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT and the month-on-month figure is expected at 0.8 percent, a noted upswing from the previous period's -0.7 percent contraction.

GBP/USD: Eyes UK PMI, trade wars and risk aversion could hurt Pound

The GBP/USD avoided a break below 1.40 during the Easter holidays, but the relief will likely be short-lived if the trade war fears drive stocks lower and UK PMI misses estimates by a wide margin.

Look to buy GOLD at 1307 major support this week

Gold has been in a sideways congestion period between 1307 and 1360 in recent months, within the context of what appears to be a long-term upward swing.

It’s payrolls week

Outlook: It's payrolls week and that pretty much runs the board. In Feb, payrolls rose 235,000 and Bloomberg reports current forecasts call for 189,000, about the same as the average over the past year …

GMT
Event
Vol.
Actual
Consensus
Previous
Friday, Mar 30
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Monday, Apr 02
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
24h
 
 
Tuesday, Apr 03
05:30
 
-0.1%
-1.0%
06:00
 
0.8%
-0.7%
06:00
 
2.2%
2.3%
07:15
 
-0.8%
-1.4%
07:30
 
64.3
65.5
07:55
 
58.4
58.4
08:00
 
56.6
56.6
08:30
 
54.5
55.2
12:55
 
 
0.1%
12:55
 
 
3.6%
13:30
 
 
13:45
 
 
54.5
n/a
 
 
-1.2%
n/a
 
55.2
55.6
15:30
 
 
1.705%
19:30
 
16.95M
17.08M
20:30
 
 
20:30
 
 
5.321M
23:01
 
 
-0.8%
Wednesday, Apr 04
00:00
 
 
2.8%
00:30
 
51.6
51.7
01:30
 
0.3%
0.1%
01:30
 
 
12%
01:30
 
-7.3%
17.1%
01:45
 
 
54.2

 

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