Fed's Harker: won't take May rate cut off the table

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

Philidelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) President Patrick Harker hit newswires Thursday, noting that while the Fed is approaching the point of cutting rates, policymakers remain unsure of when specifically that might happen.

Key highlights

Fed near point of cutting rates, but unsure of when.
Disinflation trend has picked up pace, Fed is in the 'last mile' towards 2% inflation.
Recent CPI figures show uneven progress on inflation.
Fed's Harker needs more confidence on inflation progress.
Cutting rates too early remains the greatest risk to Fed.
Fed's Harker is on board with slowing down the pace of balance sheet contraction before outright halting.
US GDP continues to be stronger than expected.
The Fed can hold rates for now, no rush to cut.
Fed's Harker is particularly focused on labor market, jobs will determine when to cut.
May rate cut is possible, but not the current forecast. A couple more months of positive data would convince Fed's Harker of need to cut.
Fed is close to cutting, just needs a couple more meetings.

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD trims losses, still near 0.6900

AUD/USD remains well on the defensive, adding to Wednesday’s pullback and trading close to the key 0.6900 contention zone ahead of the opening bell in Asia. Discouraging prints from the Australian labour market report have weighed on the Aussie, which has remained unable to take advantage from the marked pullback in the Greenback.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold: Upside remains capped by $4,200

Gold regains the smile and leaves behind three consecutive days of losses, advancing to the $4,170 region per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal’s recovery comes amid the fresh offered stance in the Greenback and declining US Treasury yields while investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s Warsh speech on Friday.

Bitcoin rebounds to $82,000 as PPI hits 6.3%, nearly $1B liquidated

Bitcoin (BTC) recovered near $82,000 on Thursday after briefly falling below $80,000, paring losses triggered by hotter-than-expected US inflation data. September PPI inflation rose 6.3% YoY, exceeding forecasts of 5.3% and marking its second-highest level since November 2022. Core PPI inflation climbed to 5% annually, above expectations of 4.4%.

The Iran war will eventually end. Tariffs won't. Here's the problem

Two cost shocks are in the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), and they have different half-lives. Energy is up 20.4% on the year and accounts for about 1.3 points of the 3.7% headline, and that shock reverses when Oil does: Brent was back at its pre-war price on July 1 and above $100 again by the end of the month, after the ceasefire collapsed on July 8.

Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff

Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.