|

Fed’s Hammack urges more tightening as inflation squeezes households

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she is hearing that lower-income US citizens are struggling with inflation, which reaffirms her remarks three days ago that “she is hearing early warning signs of a possible problem with inflation expectations.”

Furthermore, Hammack added that “more monetary-policy restraint is needed.”

On Thursday, the US PPI for September exceeded estimates in headline and core figures. This prompted investors to price out a Fed hike in October, with odds at 26% for a rate increase, according to Prime Terminal.

Fed interest rate probability - Source: Prime Terminal

Key highlights:

Hearing more from lower-income Americans struggling with inflation

Anecdotal information provides important economic guidance

Says businesses are seeing a lot of input cost price pressures, adding that she worries about the formation of an inflation mentality.

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD trims losses, still near 0.6900

AUD/USD remains well on the defensive, adding to Wednesday’s pullback and trading close to the key 0.6900 contention zone ahead of the opening bell in Asia. Discouraging prints from the Australian labour market report have weighed on the Aussie, which has remained unable to take advantage from the marked pullback in the Greenback.

USD/JPY slides back below 158.00 as USD reverses post-CPI gains

USD/JPY extends the previous day's pullback from a three-week high, attracting follow-through selling and sliding below 158.00 during Thursday's Asian session. Traders remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. The US Dollar, meanwhile, reverses Wednesday's hot CPI-led gains to April 2025 highs as US bond yields retreat on China bond-buying talk, further pressuring the pair.

Gold: Upside remains capped by $4,200

Gold regains the smile and leaves behind three consecutive days of losses, advancing to the $4,170 region per troy ounce on Thursday. The precious metal’s recovery comes amid the fresh offered stance in the Greenback and declining US Treasury yields while investors remain cautious ahead of the Fed’s Warsh speech on Friday.

Bitcoin rebounds to $82,000 as PPI hits 6.3%, nearly $1B liquidated
Bitcoin (BTC) recovered near $82,000 on Thursday after briefly falling below $80,000, paring losses triggered by hotter-than-expected US inflation data. September PPI inflation rose 6.3% YoY, exceeding forecasts of 5.3% and marking its second-highest level since November 2022. Core PPI inflation climbed to 5% annually, above expectations of 4.4%.
The Iran war will eventually end. Tariffs won't. Here's the problem
Two cost shocks are in the September Consumer Price Index (CPI), and they have different half-lives. Energy is up 20.4% on the year and accounts for about 1.3 points of the 3.7% headline, and that shock reverses when Oil does: Brent was back at its pre-war price on July 1 and above $100 again by the end of the month, after the ceasefire collapsed on July 8.
Everyone's dumping Gold after hot US inflation. Here's why $4,100 could be a floor, not a cliff
Gold (XAU/USD) is recovering from a sharp sell-off triggered by hotter-than-expected United States (US) inflation data released on Wednesday. The precious metal briefly plunged toward $4,073 as investors increased their bets on further Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes before recovering as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD) reversed their initial gains.