Fed to keep rolling with another 75 bps hike next week – Wells Fargo

Next week, the Federal Reserve will have its monetary policy meeting. Market participants see a 75 basis points rate hike. Analysts at Wells Fargo, point out the September's increase in rates, will be complemented by the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet hitting its full stride.

Key Quotes: 

“Another super-sized 75 bps rate hike at next week's FOMC meetings seems all but assured. Employment growth has been robust over the past two months, averaging 421K new jobs in July and August. Headline inflation has been relatively tame over the same period, but falling gasoline prices have accounted for the bulk of the weakness. Excluding food and energy, core inflation has remained far too high for the Fed's liking. Over the past three months, core inflation has risen at a 6.5% annualized rate, more than triple the central bank's 2% target.”

“Next week's meeting will also include an update to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We expect the 2022 median projection for the federal funds rate to be 3.875%, up from 3.375% in the June SEP. We think the 2023 median dot probably will be above the 2022 dot, but only modestly so.”

“Despite the hawkish rhetoric, few Fed officials have publicly advocated for a peak federal funds rate that is well above 4%. Our expectation is that the median projection for the 2023 fed funds rate will be 4.175%. For 2024 and 2025, we think the dots will show a steady easing of policy as inflation moves back to 2%. We expect the changes to the SEP inflation projections will be relatively modest, but weaker GDP growth and higher unemployment projections for 2023 seem likely in our view.”